It’s looking more and more likely that the key to the election is the aptly named Keystone State as “Biden’s lead isn’t *quite* comfortable enough,” according to data guy Nate Silver:
A lot of Trump's hope stems from this.
Biden's lead isn't *quite* comfortable enough in PA.
And although he has some *good* backup plans if he loses PA… namely AZ/FL/NC/GA…he doesn't have a *great* one being ahead only 1-3 points in those states.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 28, 2020
And this is why President Trump’s visit to the state yesterday was front-page news today:
https://t.co/gsFSgh2KPc pic.twitter.com/IriTZzvGtY
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 28, 2020
But even worse for Dems? The New York Times Shawn McCreesh, who grew up in Pennsylvania, has an opinion piece out today that says the polls that show Biden ahead don’t match what he’s seeing on the ground:
Can We Trust Pennsylvania’s Polls? https://t.co/9B3pUXYIhx
— Shawn McCreesh (@ShawnMcCreesh) October 27, 2020
“I grew up around here and am dubious” of Biden lead, writes McCreesh:
Nothing can stop these pieces. Not editors; not legislation; not an act of God. Nothing.
“Polls show Mr. Biden leading by five to 13 points, but I grew up around here and am dubious.” https://t.co/1X2pJzwQof
— Isaac Chotiner (@IChotiner) October 27, 2020
Some blue-checks are angry at the Times for even publishing this contrarian take, but fellow Pennsylvanian Jake Tapper thought it important enough to share and quote from:
.@ShawnMcCreesh heads back to PA: "This is what everyone is trying to figure out: Is the Trumpmania here restricted to a fortissimo minority circling the drain, or is it a blinking red warning sign that the polls are, once again, badly discombobulated?"https://t.co/PJierCBGZr
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 27, 2020
a
"One of my mom’s acquaintances recently held a Trump-themed birthday party for her child. Icing on each cookie read, 'Make ninth birthdays great again.'"https://t.co/rkel4ZJkIN via @ShawnMcCreesh
— Annie Karni (@anniekarni) October 27, 2020
a
"He has so much more support than in 2016, because it’s been four years of accomplishments" one Trump supporter tells PA native and poll-skeptical correspondent @ShawnMcCreesh in this dispatch. https://t.co/3fxkQNWbe5
— jack healy (@jackhealyNYT) October 27, 2020
Some of the people he did quote, however, were from in front of a store selling Trump merch:
Why does it feel "so different on the ground" in PA? Maybe because this op-ed is reported from in front of a literal Trump Store. https://t.co/wETsOROLB1
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 28, 2020
So, Dems are now counting on “shy” Biden voters?
Last election there were a lot of shy Trump voters (“lean-ins” they called them at Primanti Brothers in Pittsburgh) last time and there may still be. But this year I think there are loads of shy Biden voters, especially in places like this — https://t.co/7gettMJvBv
— Hussein Ibish (@Ibishblog) October 28, 2020
They have an anecdote for that, too:
Based on the same level of anecdotal evidence presented here (I, too, grew up in PA), I think there's more people than you might think who could never stomach a vote for Clinton that are hiding a vote for Biden. But we'll see…https://t.co/xYnA8DjCMy
— Andrew Small (@asmall_word) October 27, 2020
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