Now that looters have taken a break from burning down businesses across America, CNN wants everyone to know that we’re still in a coronavirus pandemic:
Even as we're following all the critically important news, let's not forget we're still in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. As of now, there have been nearly 2 million confirmed U.S. cases & more than 110,000 Americans have died in the past 3 months.
— Wolf Blitzer (@wolfblitzer) June 7, 2020
Too late, Wolf. But since we’re talking about that, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former FDC commissioner under President Trump, is warning of an increase in transmissions thanks to all the protests:
PROTESTS AND COVID-19: @ScottGottliebMD tells @margbrennan “we’re certainly going to see transmission coming out of these gatherings,” and says it’s a “shared responsibility” to help stem the risk of transmission pic.twitter.com/quT7URzfXy
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) June 7, 2020
We’ll note, however, “there’s not much research looking at [the] impact of mass gathering on viral transmission”:
THREAD: There's not much research looking at impact of mass gatherings on viral transmission. One recent study of gatherings in Gangelt, Germany (where a Covid outbreak followed) found 2.5X increase in rate of infection of those attending gatherings. 1/2 https://t.co/lC0B4bf7jE
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) June 7, 2020
But, one study out of Germany suggested transmissions will increase:
These were festive gatherings evaluated in this study. The findings should not be considered directly applicable to recent events in U.S. The German study found participation in large gatherings increased infection rate (21.3% vs. 9.5%) and number of symptoms in the infected 2/3 pic.twitter.com/g3EXdaWN3p
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) June 7, 2020
Recommended
I mentioned the study on @FaceTheNation today. h/t to @trvrb for first citing this research. The study looked at seroprevalence in a small German town exposed to super-spreading event (carnival festivities) followed by social distancing measures after transient wave of infections
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) June 7, 2020
There are a lot of variables to account for, however:
Many factors – including response of authorities which caused protesters to mass into tighter groups, use of irritant gases on protesters, wearing of masks by many protesters – will impact outcomes. Reducing risk needs to be a shared responsibility of protesters and authorities.
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) June 7, 2020
You can click through this thread for a longer breakdown of the study:
Here is the full thread by @trvrb citing this study and discussing some of the broader public health questions. https://t.co/ztK4JQld1u
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) June 7, 2020
Bottom line? “I don’t think there’s any question we’ll see chains of transmission get lit as a result of recent mass gatherings”:
I don’t think there’s any question we’ll see chains of transmission get lit as a result of recent mass gatherings. The question I’ve been asked is how much more spread will we see. Putting an estimate around that is hard. @trvrb tries provide some analysis https://t.co/z7bj2oNjV7 https://t.co/T3VkLWo3HU
— Scott Gottlieb, MD (@ScottGottliebMD) June 7, 2020
We’ll know more over the next two weeks.
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