New modeling from the much criticized University of Washington’s IHME is out and is estimating when states “could safely consider easing current social distancing policies while shifting to robust containment strategies (widely available testing, contact tracing and case-based isolation, restrictions on mass gatherings).”

But, we have some questions. . .

If you go by their latest projections (slightly different than the imaged shared with the tweet above) you’ll see that New York and New Jersey, the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States, can begin opening businesses before Texas and Florida, which are not experiencing any major drain on either state’s health system.

New York and New Jersey? May 25 to May 31; Texas and California? June 8 or later:

This just doesn’t make any sense. IHME has California opening up before New York, and the data for that just isn’t there, at least according to Nate Silver:

If you look at his tweet from yesterday we told you about, California is a state that still at peak:

And Texas is already past its peak:

And Florida is even better than Texas:

So, what are we missing?


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