President Donald Trump took to Twitter this morning to slam “Fake Polling” and said the “Fake News has never been more dishonest than it is today”:
The Fake News has never been more dishonest than it is today. Thank goodness we can fight back on Social Media. Their new weapon of choice is Fake Polling, sometimes referred to as Suppression Polls (they suppress the numbers). Had it in 2016, but this is worse…..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 12, 2019
He was especially peeved at the leak of his internal polling data to the media:
…..The Fake (Corrupt) News Media said they had a leak into polling done by my campaign which, by the way and despite the phony and never ending Witch Hunt, are the best numbers WE have ever had. They reported Fake numbers that they made up & don’t even exist. WE WILL WIN AGAIN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 12, 2019
Here’s what the president is referring to:
May 20 from @politicoalex: "The Trump campaign recently completed a 17-state polling project that concluded the president trails Joe Biden in PA, WI, MI" https://t.co/V2dA1yLCqi
NYT called it "a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster"https://t.co/YP8bqnem3v https://t.co/yg7s6xWO12— Karen Travers (@karentravers) June 12, 2019
But he is right that relying on the media’s reliance on polls this far out to drive the daily news is bonkers. Here’s an assist from 538’s Nate Siver:
No it's not. General election polls mean next to nothing this far out anyway. And if we don't know what the polls actually said & instead just get some vague characterization of them, readers lack the basic Journalism 101 information to put the story into any meaningful context. https://t.co/tiwL2M5ceC
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 12, 2019
Recommended
It's June 2019. Campaigns' strategies for which states to compete in next November mean basically nothing right now. And if we don't know what those polls actually said, it's hard to know how much they're driving Trump's behavior, which is famously erratic anyway.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 12, 2019
And as if on cue, the media is pushing new Quinnipiac numbers that show the president in trouble:
Quinnipiac has more bad polling news for Trump. These are national head-to-heads:
Biden +13
Sanders +9
Harris +8
Warren +7
Buttigieg +5
Booker +5— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) June 11, 2019
We should totally trust Quinnipiac, says Sen. Bill Nelson? Oops:
Bill Nelson leads Rick Scott, 52-46 percent, in Quinnipiac poll https://t.co/dZOwZ1rivz
— Steve Bousquet (@stevebousquet) October 22, 2018
And let’s go back to 2016, shall we?
Your regular reminder that national polls are completely useless. The same Quinnipiac poll had Clinton +7 on Trump a week before Election Day: https://t.co/mkheQ7V5ht
Also Quinnipiac had Clinton +5 in Ohio a week before election (Trump won by 8). https://t.co/G3QryUhusZ https://t.co/VuUXQcQoD1
— Steve Krakauer (@SteveKrak) June 11, 2019
Donald Trump won each of these states, as we know. From Newsweek:
A number of Quinnipiac University polls released on Tuesday also put Clinton ahead in four key swing states. In Florida, Clinton has 46 percent to Trump’s 45 percent; in Ohio she leads by 46 percent to Trump’s 41 percent; and in Pennsylvania she leads Trump 48 percent to 43 percent. In North Carolina, Clinton has 47 percent support to Trump’s 44 percent.
And here’s Howard Dean with a second assist to the president:
Don’t want to rain on your parade but these numbers are irrelevant. The election is 17 months away and national polls are relatively useless since we elect presidents based on state results not national ones. We could be up huge margins inCA and NY and even everywhere else. https://t.co/jqeD7y5Jw5
— Howard Dean (@GovHowardDean) June 12, 2019
Libs don’t believe the polls, why should Trump?
This is the thing about Trump. He has to communicate to his base he’s always winning. So terrible polls for him are fake.
But polls may well close. Do the work now to register new voters and convince people to engage. https://t.co/CNHB5nh5j3— Neera Tanden (@neeratanden) June 12, 2019
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