Well, this isn’t going according to the big Dem plan…
Axio is reporting that Republican politicos and consultants are seeing a “widespread surge in GOP voter enthusiasm” thanks to the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation battle:
Top Republicans tell Axios that they're seeing a surprising and widespread surge in GOP voter enthusiasm, powered largely by support for Brett Kavanaugh and his Supreme Court nomination. https://t.co/lcWKz4ezri
— Axios (@axios) October 4, 2018
Thanks, Democrats!
Congratulations Democrats. Your Kavanaugh circus has united the right behind Trump. https://t.co/EiyvRMAE3U
— Eli Lake (@EliLake) October 4, 2018
But it’s not just the GOP saying this. CNN’s John Berman reported this morning that he’s hearing from Democrats who “say they are seeing a Republican bounce” as well. That statement was then confirmed by CNN analyst Harry Enten:
Is there a "Republican bounce" as a result of the confirmation fight over Brett Kavanaugh? @ForecasterEnten says yes in #TheForecast. pic.twitter.com/nDssutbpcp
— New Day (@NewDay) October 4, 2018
Specifically, Enten is seeing voters come home to the GOP:
I think people have the Kavanaugh thing wrong. I see no real sign in lv vs. rv that Kavanaugh is making GOP more likely to vote than they were before… At least relative to Democrats… 1/?
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2018
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What does seem to be occurring is that the GOP is picking up support among voters in the past views… but that's far more about persuasion than it is about turnout…
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2018
Well this was written ugly… What I meant to get across is that GOP candidates are gaining support, but not because of expected turnout differences. Rather, people who were already gonna vote are changing their minds.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2018
But, as he also points out, anything can still happen:
Here's where I have things: AZ-Sinema +2, FL-Nelson +2, IN-Donnelly +3, MO-McCaskill +1, MT-Tester +3, ND-Cramer +4, NJ-Menendez +8, NV-Rosen +1, TN-Blackburn +2, TX-Cruz +3, WV-Manchin +8… Average: GOP gains 0.7 seats.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2018
With his projection covering anything from Dems gaining 4 seats in the Senate to the GOP picking up 6:
The range on this is huge btw… 95% confidence interval… Goes from Dems gaining 4 to GOP gaining 6… So still a lot undecided with a month to go…
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 4, 2018
And here’s the latest from 538’s Nate Silver, FWIW:
There's some nice symmetry in our forecast right now. Basically we're looking at:
1 in 4 chance that Democrats win both Senate and House
1 in 2 chance that the GOP keeps the Senate but Democrats win the House
1 in 4 chance that the GOP keeps both chambers.https://t.co/nMWlUPlerX— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 4, 2018
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Related:
‘YOUR MOM is fair game.’ Jagoff who got PTSD from firing a gun claims Kavanaugh’s 10-year-old daughter is ‘fair game’ https://t.co/vS5As3JbE3
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) October 4, 2018
FBI investigation BACKFIRING, DiFi? Sen. Dianne Feinstein goes after Rachel Mitchell and her memo in DESPERATE dig https://t.co/6tcf8G8ioL
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) October 4, 2018
'You tried to destroy an innocent man': New witnesses from Ronan Farrow and Jane Mayer FALL FLAT https://t.co/BrYbjssCrZ
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) October 4, 2018
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