Last week, a study by Harvard University on death in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria numbered an estimated 4645, which is much, much higher that the official death toll of 64:
Puerto Rico's official death toll from Hurricane Maria is 64, but a new Harvard study says the real number could be closer to 5,000. https://t.co/M2Smq1jUlG
— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) June 1, 2018
And this 4645 number is quickly becoming gospel:
Outside the capitol in San Juan, Puerto Rico, right now, these shoes have been placed to honor the 4600+ people that Harvard University estimates died because of Hurricane Maria, most because of a lack of access to medical care, say researchers. pic.twitter.com/otWTO2YbB4
— David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) June 1, 2018
Harvard report says 4645 people died in Puerto Rico as a result of Hurricane Maria. For perspective on this:
1833 deaths attributed to Hurricane Katrina
2411 total US combat deaths in Afghanistan
2977 deaths as a result of 9/11 attacks
4424 total US combat deaths in Iraq War— David Rothkopf (@djrothkopf) May 29, 2018
But, surprise! It’s wrong. Puerto Rico released actual data on Friday which shows the actual deaths on the island. It’s still higher than 64, but the number are in line with what the media has already been reporting:
Newly released statistics from Puerto Rico government show deaths spiked by ~600-700 in months around Irma/Maria & immediate aftermath last year. Undermines official death toll of 64 (and is more in line w/Penn St. & media estimates)
But official also pushes back on Harvard 1/2 pic.twitter.com/BAjji8oT3s
— Colin Wilhelm (@colinwilhelm) June 1, 2018
In a Spanish language statement P.R.’s director of Demographic Registry says her agency agreed to cooperate with Harvard, but that their data wasn’t ready. Says Harvard researchers were told review process was ongoing
“[Harvard’s researcher] was never denied access to them” 2/2
— Colin Wilhelm (@colinwilhelm) June 1, 2018
Did not see this earlier today. Puerto Rico just released this, data which shows a spike in deaths 1,250 above normal around when Irma and Maria hit last year. The official death count from Maria is 64. https://t.co/LmS0bnKMiO https://t.co/Wj0FPH4Qi8
— Colin Wilhelm (@colinwilhelm) June 1, 2018
There’s some argument if Puerto Rico intentionally withheld data from the Harvard researchers:
Puerto Rico's governor says he wasn't aware Dept. of Health officials in PR withheld mortality rates from researchers at Harvard (and elsewhere, according to reports).
As @CarmenYulinCruz rightfully asks, the question now is what the governor will do with this information. https://t.co/SckNwLoGsC
— Gabe Gonzalez (@gaybonez) June 1, 2018
Puerto Rico’s governor said on Thursday that he was only now hearing that the agency that collected the information on deaths was not releasing the actual data:
Just to clarify. The Harvard study states throughout that they faced systemic opposition from territorial authorities as they tried to gather official data. How this is news to the Governor is surprising.
#PuertoRico https://t.co/BDHQjWKyPO— Juliette Kayyem (@juliettekayyem) June 1, 2018
Gov. @ricardorossello told CNN that “there will be hell to pay” if he finds that his govt. has refused to release mortality data. @cpipr sued them for the data. I was in a courtroom last week in which his govt’s lawyers were defending withholding it. How does he not know that? https://t.co/xRLnlb4917
— Adrian Florido (@adrianflorido) June 1, 2018
But even before the actual numbers were released, people were starting to question the Harvard study’s accuracy. From the Washington Post’s Fact Checker blog, for example:
In effect, the researchers took one number – 15 deaths identified from a survey of 3,299 households – and extrapolated that to come up with 4,645 deaths across the island. That number came with a very large caveat, clearly identified in the report, but few news media accounts bothered to explain the nuances.
That’s … not a good way to count deaths:
Important: the 4,645 figure, estimated by Harvard University as being the number of people killed by hurricane Maria, has a range of possibility — the actual excess death count could be as low as 793 & as high as 8,498.
A fact check from @GlennKesslerWP https://t.co/WZYNcs6Syd
— David Begnaud (@DavidBegnaud) June 2, 2018
Also from the Fact Checker, the media’s numbers are pretty close to the actual numbers just released:
The New York Times calculated 1,052 deaths through October.
The Center for Investigative Reporting calculated 985 through October.
University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez professors calculated 822, with a 95 percent confidence range that the total was somewhere between 605 and 1,039.
University of Pennsylvania professors calculated excess deaths of about 500 in September, or a total of 1,085 if the same pattern held in October. That estimate was based on six weeks of mortality records.
A Latino USA analysis, using updated data from Puerto Rico’s Department of Health, calculated 1,194 excess deaths in September and October.
Maybe instead of asking why the media isn’t covering a flawed study the media should ask why they’ve been ignoring the island for months now?
The story that deserved far more coverage this week. Hurricane Maria killed an estimated 4,600 people on Puerto Rico says a Harvard University study. The official toll is 64. https://t.co/3cC1D9TgNv
— James Cook (@BBCJamesCook) June 1, 2018
***
Join the conversation as a VIP Member