Quinnipiac poll: Clinton, Trump 'dead even' in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania https://t.co/IqXOKrVUJG
— Robert Costa (@costareports) May 10, 2016
There’s a new Quinnipiac poll out this morning of the crucial swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania that has those in Trump Tower smiling this morning. It’s all tied up, folks:
good morning, Q poll. FL: Clinton 43 – Trump 42.
OH: Clinton 39 – Trump 43.
PA: Clinton 43 – Trump 42— Rick Klein (@rickklein) May 10, 2016
For comparison purposes, Trump is doing at least as well as Mitt Romney at the same point in 2012:
This time in 2012 (Q polls)
OH: Obama 45 – Romney 44
FL: Obama 43 – Romney 44
PA: Obama 47 – Romney 39Fascinating https://t.co/jxbAkQZMns
— Tayara (@tayaraherzl) May 10, 2016
“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald
Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.“At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and
2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”
But, there’s some question if the sample Q is using properly reflects the 2016 electorate:
Q poll swing state samples show smaller Hispanic and black electorates in 2016–this is highly unlikely.
— Alan Abramowitz (@AlanIAbramowitz) May 10, 2016
Q Poll Ohio sample is 4 pts. more white than 2012 Ohio exit poll; PA sample is 3 pts. more white and FL sample is 2 pts. more white.
— Alan Abramowitz (@AlanIAbramowitz) May 10, 2016
In all three Q polls released today the sample is 3-4 points more white than the 2012 electorate, which is ludicrous.
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) May 10, 2016
Quinnipiac’s polls predicated on assumption that in OH, PA, & FL far fewer Latinos & African-Americans will vote than in 2012.
Uh huh. Sure.— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) May 10, 2016
And again, this isn’t specific to today’s polls. EVERY Quinnipiac poll has samples far older/whiter than even GOP analysts predict
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) May 10, 2016
In the “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” category goes Quinnipiac’s assumption of 2016 electorate whiter/older than 2012
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) May 10, 2016
And even Trump supporters have noticed an issue with Q’s crosstabs, including polling that suggests Americans don’t want Trump’s wall with Mexico even though they do want him as president:
Bizarre QPoll crosstabs:
1) Hillary has highest moral character but is least trustworthy.
2) Trump is worst in a crisis but best leader.— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) May 10, 2016
New QPoll in PA, FL and OH shows races basically tied, yet has some seriously contradictory crosstabs:https://t.co/i6KEgtlmE3
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) May 10, 2016
Ok, party affiliation of QPoll appears to have been fair. Strange then that majorities oppose the wall???https://t.co/mVU9rl8YTW
— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) May 10, 2016
From Quinnipiac:
Pennsylvania voters oppose 51 – 45 percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 49 percent want a wall with 47 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed 71 – 26 percent. […]
Florida voters split 48 – 48 percent on whether the U.S. should build a wall along the Mexican border. Men support the wall 54 – 44 percent, with women opposed 52 – 43 percent. White voters want a wall 55 – 41 percent, with non-white voters opposed 65 – 31 percent. […]
Ohio voters oppose 52 – 45 percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 50 percent want a wall, with 46 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed 79 – 19 percent.
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