Nate Silver warned Dems that, yes, they “should be nervous” about Joe Biden’s chances in Pennsylvania, and hence, the ENTIRE election:
Also got something else for you this morning: What if Biden loses Pennsylvania? https://t.co/wtfOa2RFCV
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 27, 2020
The money quote from the article’s summary: “Yes, Biden and Democrats should be nervous that he has only about a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state.”
“Yes, Biden and Democrats should be nervous that he has only about a 5-point lead in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state. Five points is more than a normal-sized polling error, but not that much more.” https://t.co/tFuRLHdOc6
— Patrick Thornton (@pwthornton) October 27, 2020
The lead is even narrower in the RCP average, FWIW:
ONE WEEK until the election. Here's where the candidates stand in the battleground states cont
Ohio
538: Trump +1.6, 48%-46.4%
RCP: Trump + 0.6, 46.8%-46.2%Pennsylvania
538: Biden +5.3, 50.2%-44.9%
RCP: Biden +4.5, 49.9%-45.4%— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) October 27, 2020
In 2016, Silver says polls were off by 4.4 points so it wouldn’t take much more of an error for Trump to win the state:
Biden's ahead by 5.4 points in our PA polling average. But polls were off there by 4.4 points in 2016. So he's got a little bit of extra cushion, but not much. And a close result could go to the courts there.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 27, 2020
Oh, and the latest poll from the group that predicted Pennsylvania correct in 2016 has Trump ahead (although Silver has called out Trafalgar’s methods this year):
A Pennsylvania poll team Trump likes. https://t.co/Sx2195VxVz
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) October 27, 2020
And this map explains why President Trump was in Maine and is going to Nebraska as both those states split their electoral votes. The scenario below looks to be Biden 270, Trump 268 with Nebraska all for Trump and Maine all for Biden:
However, Biden actually has decent chances if he loses PA, provided that he wins MI/WI where his polling lead is larger. Anyway, some interesting insights on the inner workings of our model here: pic.twitter.com/Mb5btkZ7gc
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 27, 2020
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