It’s no secret that those who aren’t delusional — and we’ll include ourselves in that definition — are expecting a red wave tomorrow … or whenever the election results are settled; Karine Jean-Pierre told us today that waiting several days is “how this is supposed to work.” Nevertheless, we expect to see a lot of really sad-looking cable news hosts and their panelists Tuesday night reporting the results.
The thing is — are expectations set so high for the Republicans that Democrats will consider anything less than a red tsunami a victory?
Ben Shapiro says to watch for the media to redefine the term “red wave,” kind of how they redefined “recession” on the fly.
Watch for the defining down of the "red wave." The "wave" is skewed by baseline: GOP already has 212. If GOP adds 28+ in House, that puts them at 240+, which they've only hit 4x since WWII (3 since 2010). If the GOP adds 36+, that gives them their largest majority since 1928.
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) November 7, 2022
For the record, here’s how Politico Playbook is spinning it:
Politico Playbook today on how they’ll view GOP electoral outcomes:
Dems losing 20 or fewer seats: sub-par for minority party.
Dems losing 20-30 seats: typical midterms.
Dems losing 30-40 seats: “above-average midterm drubbing.”
40+ Dem losses would be a GOP “wave.”
— ⚜️ Ellen Carmichael ⚜️ (@ellencarmichael) November 7, 2022
Even with a “wave,” we expect to hear a lot of Democratic pundits saying how the opposition party always does well after a presidential election. In other words, it will be typical of the midterms.
Playbook authors note that no forecast concludes GOP poised to pick up more than 35 Congressional seats, implying that it’s highly unlikely they’ll frame Tuesday’s results as a “red wave.”
— ⚜️ Ellen Carmichael ⚜️ (@ellencarmichael) November 7, 2022
The GOP would have to get to 252 House seats or more—a level not seen in well over a century—just for this to be called a “wave?”
— Ryan Ellis (@RyanLEllis) November 7, 2022
It's some, umm, narrative-casting for sure.
— ⚜️ Ellen Carmichael ⚜️ (@ellencarmichael) November 7, 2022
So Republicans could post enough wins to control more seats than previous waves & they won’t call it a wave. Got it! https://t.co/hyCiWRdWl3 https://t.co/g8sPhbSBgG
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 7, 2022
I think tomorrow will look a lot like last year: the narrative has swung so much toward an R bloodbath that the fact some Ds are going to hold on in tight races in blue states is going to be spun as exceeding expectations.
— Foster (@foster_type) November 7, 2022
They’re “only” going to lose like 30-35 seats, which will be considered a win, despite the fact 240+ seats is right in line with 2010, 2014.
— Neil Gorsuch maskless (@GorsuchMaskless) November 7, 2022
Waves should be judged on the size of the majority, not the shift from the baseline.
— Grant Bosse (@grantbosse) November 7, 2022
Not a good way to look at it. Total number of seats would be a better guide.
— #FWD Conservative (@idahoguy) November 7, 2022
There’s no doubt that some Democrats are going to hold on in tight races, unfortunately, but it’s interesting to see the bar they’ve set for a red wave. Let’s see their heads explode when it happens.
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Related:
Joy Reid has uncovered an ‘insidious’ GOP plot to use polling firms to create a ‘red wave’ narrative https://t.co/4aKETA52Ar
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) November 1, 2022
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