We’re not sure why Roll Call is stepping into these waters, but it’s published an analysis by Nathan Gonzales saying that a “red wave” isn’t in the cards yet — if the election were held today, Republicans would pick up just seven seats in the House; enough to take control, but nothing outstanding.

Gonzales writes:

If the election were held today, it looks as if Republicans would gain seven House seats, according to Inside Elections’ individual race ratings. While that would be enough for the majority, it certainly wouldn’t qualify as a red wave.

Still, that doesn’t mean Democrats can rest easy, and GOP gains are likely to be higher.

If you tally all the races rated as Solid Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican and Tilt Republican, and split the 18 Toss-up races evenly, Republicans would have 221 seats. That would be a net gain of seven seats. They need a net gain of only four for the majority.

Of course, Republicans wouldn’t turn that down, but it would be a minuscule gain and a massive disappointment for the GOP because the expectations and current projections are high.

Current projections are indeed high. And Democrats are heading into the midterms pushing important policies like Drag Queen Story Hour and “people with the capacity to give birth.”

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