As of today, Real Clear Politics has Kamala Harris up by only 0.3% in Wisconsin. Early voting is still underway, although those times and end dates vary so check with your municipality if you live in the Dairy State.
Some of the early voting (EV) returns are not looking good for Harris:
The WI EV numbers look so so bad for Harris today. I wish I could talk to someone without doomscrollers everywhere about this in an honest way.
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 1, 2024
Trump is outrunning Johnson by 7.94% now. pic.twitter.com/uK9KNjm9qA
That Donald Trump is outpacing Ron Johnson is something. In 2022, which was not a good year for Republicans, Johnson beat former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by a percentage point. And Trump is now outpacing him.
Data pic.twitter.com/JrGIsvbeUJ
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 1, 2024
This is also good for Republicans.
Based on this how much could Trump win Wisconsin by?
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) November 1, 2024
Excellent question.
I project 4. I can't resolve a path for her anymore.
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 1, 2024
Hoo boy.
And here are some comparisons between 2020 and 2024:
🚨WI Absentee Ballot Returns 4 Days Out (2022 - 2024)🚨
— Nathan Trueblood (@NathanTrueblood) November 1, 2024
Total Ballots Returned are up: 696,163 (+108.3%)
In-Person Ballots Cast are up: 542,370 (+209.6%)
Notable County Numbers:
🔵 Milwaukee: 94,159 gain (+90.5%)
🔴 Waukesha: 79,456 gain (+117.1%)
🔵 Dane: 78,283 gain…
Once again, the red counties outpace the blue ones. That's good news.
🚨WI Absentee Ballot Returns 4 Days Out (2020 - 2024)🚨
— Nathan Trueblood (@NathanTrueblood) November 1, 2024
Total Ballots Returned are down: 399,910 (-23.1%)
In-Person Ballots Cast are up: 258,627 (+47.7%)
Notable County Numbers:
🔵 Milwaukee: 84,224 down (-29.8%)
🔵 Dane: 56,726 down (-24.2%)
🔴 Waukesha: 21,996 down (-12.9%)…
So while numbers are down, they're down more in blue counties of Dane and Milwaukee than the red counties.
WI Total Ballots Cast - 4 Days Out:
— Nathan Trueblood (@NathanTrueblood) November 1, 2024
2024 - 1,338,728
2022 - 642,565
2020 - 1,738,638
In-Person Votes Cast:
2024 - 801,083
2022 - 258,713
2020 - 542,456
Ballot Return Rate:
2024 - 83.7%
2022 - 75.5%
2020 - 82.1%
This also tracks with changes from COVID and the midterms to a big presidential election year.
For this writer, today was the last day to early vote in her city. She voted.
It is still going to be a close race, but these things are good for Trump and bad for Kamala. Go vote and keep them this way.
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