Hillary Clinton takes the debate stage in Las Vegas Wednesday night with a comfortable lead in most polls, but a new poll shows Independent Evan McMullin leading both her and Donald Trump in Utah.
A poll conducted by Emerson College places McMullin at 31 percent of the vote to Trump’s 27 percent. Clinton places a close third at 24 percent.
UTAH Topline@Evan_McMullin 31%@realDonaldTrump 27%@HillaryClinton 24%@GovGaryJohnson 5%
Undecided 12%
Results at https://t.co/ARVMZmGvHd— Emerson Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 19, 2016
#McMullinMentum continues…@Evan_McMullin has taken the lead in #Utah! Learn more about Evan here: https://t.co/KoUYf1PWJ9 #utpol #EvanUT pic.twitter.com/7vhjvG6xvO
— Team McMullin (@TeamMcMullin) October 19, 2016
Thank you, Utah, for your support and standing for true conservative principles. https://t.co/ChG4ZudX9J
— Evan McMullin (@EvanMcMullin) October 19, 2016
FiveThirtyEight.com last week ran a feature titled, “How Evan McMullin Could Win Utah And The Presidency,” albeit with the subhead, “It’s unlikely, but far from impossible.” It’s most definitely unlikely, but for a third-party candidate who’s been frozen out of the debates to make such a strong showing is pretty remarkable.
Evan McMullin leading in Utah. Would be the first independent to win a state since 1968. (MGR) https://t.co/vi8rKW7qSm
— – ̗̀ KU Radio ̖́- (@kuradio) October 19, 2016
It may be time for RCP's Utah line to include McMullin. https://t.co/GS6Kw15BUE
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) October 19, 2016
Emerson isn't the most reliable pollster, but it's obvious from all the data that @Evan_McMullin now has a solid chance to win Utah.
— (((AG))) (@AG_Conservative) October 19, 2016
If @Evan_McMullin can take Utah and @GovGaryJohnson can take New Mexico and another state like Alaska it'd really send a message.
— Brendan Noble (@Brendan_Noble) October 19, 2016
Supposing McMullin does win Utah’s electoral votes; does that necessarily hurt Trump? Who knows, but the implications theoretically could be huge if the election is close enough.
Holy crap jst saw this. I so hope if HRC can't win, McMullen can pull it off Utah: McMullin 31%/Trump 27%/Clinton 24%/Johnson 5% (Emerson)
— Cliff Schecter (@cliffschecter) October 19, 2016
https://twitter.com/AtomicHarbour/status/788861628729131008
DJT doesn't have a path to victory. Anything to reduce his overall EV count helps w/ an HRC mandate
— Michael Maddux (↙️↙️↙️) (@michaeljmaddux) October 19, 2016
On the other hand …
Ironically, if McMullin carries Utah & somehow sends the election to the House, he'll end up making Trump president.
— Mark Krikorian (@MarkSKrikorian) October 19, 2016
Again, that’s one poll of 700 likely voters that has McMullin with the lead.
McMullin up to a 25% chance to win Utah in our now-cast. 11% in polls-only, which is probably too low. https://t.co/xoNQ6IlrfJ pic.twitter.com/AlszsFx0tH
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 19, 2016
*jaws theme plays*@NateSilver538 pic.twitter.com/WClcqvE64v
— darth™ (@darth) October 19, 2016
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