As the media spin spin spin (NOW they’re admitting Omicron could be just like a flu since their pals who are thrice-vaxxed are catching it) and President Silver Alert goes on vacation at the beach with his wife and doggie, Mia Malan put together a pretty damn spectacular and FACT-FILLED thread with data on the variant.
Crazy, right?
DATA? FACTS?! The nerve.
People might actually stop panicking if they read the reality of the variant … so make sure you share this with everyone you know.
Take a look.
[Thread] JUST IN:
How sick did #COVID19 patients in SA get during Gauteng's #Omicron wave?
NEW @TheLancet preprint: https://t.co/EH1Lfm8TGT (via Waasila Jasat, @ProfAbdoolKarim et al.)
— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Seriously, read this and share it.
2. Why did study authors look @ Gauteng + not the entire SA?
1. SA's #Omicron outbreak started in Gauteng, so there's data 4 a longer period than other provinces
2. They looked @ the 1st 4 weeks of #Omicron + compared it to the same periods for Wave 2 (Beta), Wave 3 (#Delta) pic.twitter.com/bsmE500yVA— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
3. From when to when were the 1 month periods of the waves?
– Wave 2 (Beta): 29 Nov-26 Dec 2020
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 2 May-29 May 2021
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 14 Nov-11 Dec 2021— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
4. How many reported #COVID19 cases (so how many people tested positive) during the 1st month of each wave in Gauteng?
– Wave 2 (Beta): 41,046
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 33,423
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 133,551— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Wow, way more cases … sort of like what we’re seeing here.
But keep going.
5. Which % of people who tested + for #COVID19 got admitted to hospital in the different waves?
– Wave 2 (Beta): 18.9% (7,774/41,046)
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 13.7% (4,574/33,423)
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4.9% (6,510/133,551)— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Roughly 5%.
That’s it.
Going to the hospital.
FIVE PERCENT.
Remember when the big deal was keeping our health care system from being overrun? Yeah …
6. Which % of #COVID19 hospital patients had severe disease?
– Wave 2 (Beta): 60.1% (4,672/7,774)
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 66.9% (3,058/4,574)
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 28.8% (1,276/4,438) [2,072/ 6,510 patients = a not a documented hospital outcome when the study = submitted] pic.twitter.com/1soLK08cwS— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Of that 5%, not even 1/3 of them had ‘severe disease.’
7. What counts for severe disease?
– Acute respiratory distress
– Oxygen supplementation
– Ventilation
– Intensive care unit admission
– Death— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
ICU stuff.
Keep going … trust us.
8. % of #COVID19 patients needing supplemental oxygen:
– Wave 2 (Beta): 39.4% (3,063/7,774)
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 48.8% (2,231/4,574)
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 19.7% (875/4,438) pic.twitter.com/gSsb3MXkur— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
See what we mean? Omicron is super transmissible BUT it’s not putting people in the hospital and it’s not killing them.
Which is really what we should be watching, right?
9. Median hospital stay:
– Wave 2 (Beta): 7 days
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 8 days
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 4 days— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Boom.
10. % of cases (of total admissions) admitted among children + teens below 20 years:
– Wave 2 (Beta): 3.9% (306/7,774)
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 3.5% (161/4,574)
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 17.7% (1,151/6,510) pic.twitter.com/Vyez0V0Alf— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
11. % of hospitalised patients younger than 20 years with severe disease:
– Wave 2 (Beta): 22.5% (69/306)
– Wave 3 (#Delta): 23.0% (37/161)
– Wave 4 (#Omicron): 20.4% (172/844) pic.twitter.com/4Hslpu78Gg— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Seeing a trend here, yes?
12. What does the data tell us?
Admitted patients in the 1st month of SA's #Omicron (4th) wave were 73% less likely to have severe disease than patients admitted during the 1st month of the Beta and #Delta waves.
— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
This variant seems ‘milder.’
13. Great explanation via @ProfAbdoolKarim:
1. #Omicron caused 4x more infections than #Delta in the 1st 4 wks of each GP wave
2. But #Omicron's hospital admission rate = +/- a quarter of #Delta's. So Omicron leads to almost the same nr of Delta admissions but in a shorter time.— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
14. #Omicron admissions don't strain the health system to same extent as #Delta admissions because Omicron leads to severe disease 73% less often than Delta (after adjustment).
— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
Read that again.
Omicron admissions don’t strain the health system.
15. NB: The study can't tell u how much of #Omicron's milder disease effect = is due to a less virulent virus, vaccination and/or past immunity (especially vaccination in those with past infection).@ProfAbdoolKarim = likely all 3 play a role (probs in this order of importance).
— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
We keep seeing people mention Omicron as the key to this pandemic becoming endemic … something we just have to learn to live with.
16. As any combination of a less virulent virus, co-
morbidities, high immunity from prior infection(s)/vax may be contributors 2 #Omicron's milder disease, this study's results = not necessarily hold true 4 countries with diff co-morbidity profiles, prior infection/vax coverage. pic.twitter.com/7K3dsHfUzu— Mia Malan (@miamalan) December 30, 2021
What she said.
This looks to be the reality of Omicron. Take a deep breath.
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