A Fox News poll result reveals that 49 percent of registered voters surveyed about their "choice for president if voting now" favor former President Donald Trump to 47 percent favoring President Joe Biden, according to a graphic tweeted by Fox News Sunday.
NEW FOX News Poll: Choice For President If Voting Now. #FoxNewsSundayhttps://t.co/pwZzGaG20F pic.twitter.com/gIeE6zc82A
— Fox News Sunday (@FoxNewsSunday) March 3, 2024
This poll result is a big deal, but the timing and nature of the poll must be considered. It is a big deal because Joe Biden is an incumbent president either trailing or in a statistical dead-heat with another candidate. On the other hand, the graphic in the tweet phrases the poll question as, "Choice for president if voting now." There are a lot of days between February 25th-28th, which the graphic indicates is the period in which this poll was conducted, and Election Day. Primary elections, debates, speeches, conventions, and other influential aspects of a presidential election are still on the horizon. Another reason to ingest this poll result without a conclusive analysis is that it's a nationally reflective poll, which while informative to some degree, does not specifically reflect how individual states with various Electoral College delegate counts will allot those votes relative to a candidate receiving a 270-vote majority.
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Something that makes this electoral go-round unique is that Trump is running as a non-incumbent to be elected president a second time. It has been more than a century since there was a general election candidacy comparable to former President Trump's, should he be the Republican nominee. Therefore, it is more than reasonable to presume that former President Trump has an electoral advantage that most who have been nominated in opposition to an incumbent president have not shared.
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