Another media setup or real GOP trouble? Latest midterm predictions are favorable to Dems

Jacob B. | 4:51 PM on August 19, 2018

A new CBS poll shows that Democrats are in an increasingly stronger position to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives from the Republicans in the upcoming November midterm elections.

This is a snapshot of the latest CBS estimate if the election were held today.

Our latest house estimate is Dems 222 Rep 213 (moe +/- 11 seats)

…if the election were today. pic.twitter.com/l5Pn48hTgG

— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) August 19, 2018

As usual with polls that favor Democrats, the CBS analysis indicates that women are going to play an important and perhaps determinative factor in the outcome:

“Democrats appear to be hanging on to Hillary Clinton voters at a slightly greater rate – across these key districts, nearly 9 in 10 Clinton voters tell us they would vote Democratic again. Women undergird Democratic support, picking Democratic over Republican candidates by 12 points. Men prefer Republicans by 8 points, resulting in a big gender gap.”

Cook Political Report editor Amy Walter says the midterm elections will either be a major success for Democrats or they will fall just short of the number needed for a majority.

Ultimately, I think Ds either fall a few seats short of House majority or win 35+ seats. Tons of single digit races that will break overwhelmingly to D or R on Election Day – won’t break 50-50.

— amy walter (@amyewalter) August 19, 2018