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The New York Times reports the 'real chances of a breakthrough infection' as only 'one in 5000'

The New York Times’s David Leonhardt reports this morning that the “real chances of a breakthrough infection” are only “one in 5,000” on any given day:


And that number is even lower for people who “take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community”:

In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

In other words, if you’re vaccinated (or have natural immunity although the article doesn’t say it), GO LIVE YOUR LIFE:


The numbers get even smaller if we use hospitalized as a metric and not infected:

The “anecdotal evidence” that panicked everyone came from the CDC. Let’s not forget that:

And the risk from a Covid breakthrough infection is “of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle”:


And, again, it was the CDC that did this:

And the “one in 5000” figure? That’s a conservative estimate:


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