The New York Times’s David Leonhardt reports this morning that the “real chances of a breakthrough infection” are only “one in 5,000” on any given day:
One in 5,000: The risk that a vaccinated person would have a breakthrough infection.https://t.co/AzeHkKtlTE
— Dwight Silverman (@dsilverman) September 7, 2021
And that number is even lower for people who “take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community”:
In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.
How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.
In other words, if you’re vaccinated (or have natural immunity although the article doesn’t say it), GO LIVE YOUR LIFE:
The proof is in the data…. Vaccinated people have a tiny chance of getting sick…. This is worth a read… https://t.co/ZmN4MbVVYr
— Jane Sims (@JaneatLFPress) September 7, 2021
The numbers get even smaller if we use hospitalized as a metric and not infected:
Between 1-in-5000 and 1-in-10000 vaccinated people are getting breakthrough COVID cases. Some much much much tinier percentage of those who test positive have to be hospitalized. https://t.co/VDmOyGmQeq pic.twitter.com/ewwDviQAF7
— Sonny Bunch (@SonnyBunch) September 7, 2021
The “anecdotal evidence” that panicked everyone came from the CDC. Let’s not forget that:
Some good news: Early data shows breakthrough infections are not nearly as common as anecdotal evidence has led us to fear. https://t.co/KmCB1gjPcX
— Amanda Hoover 👩🏻🦰 (@amandahoovernj) September 7, 2021
And the risk from a Covid breakthrough infection is “of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle”:
“My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.”https://t.co/p405ZS4fWF
— Sean Burns (@SeanMBurns) September 7, 2021
And, again, it was the CDC that did this:
"Delta is a problem. Vaccine hesitancy is a bigger problem."
Also: “'The messaging … has basically served to terrify the vaccinated and make unvaccinated eligible adults doubt the effectiveness of the vaccines.' Neither of those views is warranted."https://t.co/nT7p4AK4mA
— Mike Calia (@Michael_Calia) September 7, 2021
And the “one in 5000” figure? That’s a conservative estimate:
.@DLeonhardt does some math
He suggests that the risk of a breakthrough infection on any given day is about 1 in 5000
I think its closer to 1 in 10,000
And if you live in a lower infection state like MA or RI, its probably closer to 1 in 20,000https://t.co/lMJO3yL6zb
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) September 7, 2021
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