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'...seems like quite a stretch': Nate Silver breaks down the CDC data from Provincetown, MA that's being used to justify the new mask guidance

The CDC finally released some of the data behind its new mask guidance and as many suspected, it’s a study based on a cluster of infections that happened in Provincetown, Mass. during July.

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First up, the study “includes several major caveats, most of which are almost completely missing from the hyperbolic news coverage around this”:

And for some reason, the authors left out this tiny detail:

From Silver on this:

The sample sizes are small, too:

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In summary, “To take a self-selected, not-statistically-significant sample of ~200 nondiverse people during a party weekend that was an outlier in many respects, and use it to conclude that breakthrough infections are just as likely to transmit the virus, seems like quite the stretch”:

Oof.

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