Earlier today, we got a look at how many sorting machines have been removed from USPS offices around the country and Florida at the top of the list stands out:
USPS ordered to remove 671 mail sorting machines under DeJoy:
59 in Florida
58 in Texas
34 in Ohio
30 in Pennsylvania
26 in Michigan
15 in North Carolina
12 in Virginia
12 in Wisconsin
11 in GeorgiaHe just said removed machines won’t be reinstalled. This is major crisis
— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) August 21, 2020
Why does Florida stand out? Well, the Florida GOP has been pushing vote-by-mail for years to the party’s advantage over Dems so if the Trump administration were really trying to affect the 2020 election, hurting Republicans in Florida would be a pretty dumb way to go about it:
And Florida is a well-established mail voting state where the mail benefits Republicans.
I hate partisan, dishonest journalists. https://t.co/DqOe71mI0E
— Nathan Wurtzel is a silly name, but it's mine (@NathanWurtzel) August 21, 2020
But, alas, The Lincoln Project sees a pattern in the data:
Hmm. It's almost like there's some sort of pattern on which states were targeted. https://t.co/l44MnoRCxb
— The Lincoln Project (@ProjectLincoln) August 21, 2020
Oh really? Here’s data journalist Nate Silver making the case that there’s actually no pattern whatsoever:
FWIW, these highly track with populations; these states represent 36% of the US population and 38% of the sorting machines removed. So while the situation is quite concerning, I don't know that there is a basis for claims that swing states have been disproportionately targeted. https://t.co/TA1IWza1XL
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 21, 2020
I'd also note, I suppose, that if I were trying to slow down the mail to try to help my re-election, I would *not* disproportionately target swing states because that would be too easy to detect.
Nonetheless, this list of states is NOT suggestive of targeting of swing states.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 21, 2020
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Indeed, if you go through the full list of removals, it's clear that there is *no pattern whatsoever* between where machines are removed and how red or blue a state is, or whether it's a swing state. Data from here: https://t.co/vsWowZ1ymX pic.twitter.com/VIJnMNyMHX
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 21, 2020
The top states for removals per capita are Delaware, South Dakota, DC, Tennessee and North Dakota. Those are not battleground states the last time I checked. The suggestion that this is concentrated in swing states is wrong, full stop, and pretty irresponsible IMO.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 21, 2020
Stick to stealing memes, Lincoln Project.
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