So, that big liberal push we’ve been reading so much about in the media to turn Texas “blue” didn’t go according to plan. Boom goes the GOP turnout:
Contrary to the media narrative going into the #election the GOP could have as much as a 23 point lead in turnout in voting in today's #TexasPrimary:https://t.co/49CiwiiIljhttps://t.co/49CiwiiIlj
— RRH Elections (@RRHElections) March 7, 2018
As for the marquee Senate race, Ted Cruz dominated:
Guys…. pic.twitter.com/enaFusrhAj
— Jay Caruso (@JayCaruso) March 7, 2018
Still red:
It was a Texas-sized turnout Tuesday, with Democrat voters hitting the 1 million mark and Republican voters breaking their record of 1.48 million voters. https://t.co/sd6pKMah2w
— KRIS 6 News (@KRIS6News) March 7, 2018
So much for the predictions:
GOP edge now at about 22 points, 61 to 39 percent. Dems should gain back some ground, but I suspect this won't prove to be the night they were imagining. None of their top candidates are posting great numbers. And this doesn't look like the vote of a 'blue' Texas
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) March 7, 2018
“Still a pretty Republican state.” Ya think?
Dems accounted for ~40% of all TX primary votes cast this year. That's up from 29% in 2014 & 31% in 2010, but it's a bit lower than some Dems were hoping (they were 44% in 2006). Despite Trump's mediocre standing in TX, it's still a pretty Republican state.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 7, 2018
Dems, however, are still spinning. Here’s Wendy Davis, for example:
“We are seeing some extraordinary turnout in the democratic primary in Texas that has us feeling very hopeful about what the general election might look like,” said Wendy Davis, a former Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate.
https://t.co/QBeiOhTj22— NBC News (@NBCNews) March 7, 2018
And Dems will point to turnout in Dem counties as proof:
In 2010 in Dallas County, Rs had primary turnout of 8.64% to Ds 5.03%.
In 2014, it was Rs 7.41% to Ds 5.8%.
So far, tonight, it's Rs 6.09% and Ds **9.47%**
A potentially big signal about TX-32 and, more importantly, state house races this fall.
#txlege 2/
— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) March 7, 2018
As for the early vote numbers (EV), since the Secretary of State only reported the biggest counties, GOP areas were underrepresented in those breathless media reports:
One place where relying on available data can mislead you. Texas tracks EV, but only in the 15 biggest counties. Dems led by 40K.
SoS now reporting that Dems had 562k early votes statewide. GOP? Over 800k.
Why? The **other** 240 counties in that state!
— Steve Singiser (@stevesingiser) March 7, 2018
Prediction: No blue wave likely, but still some moderate concern for the GOP:
Does this mean a blue wave is about to wash over TX? Most likely not. Does it confirm a spike in Dem enthusiasm relative to past midterms that should concern the GOP in a lot of places? Yes.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 7, 2018
Exit observation via Erick Erickson:
https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/971381208235069441
***
Related:
LISTEN: Ted Cruz's first ad goes after Beto O'Rourke with a song (earworm warning) https://t.co/1wJ4DZCtkR
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) March 7, 2018
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