Here’s what’s set to happen on January 6 if Republicans in the House and Senate challenge a state’s results

It’s actually pretty common for these challenges to be raised as Rep. Matt Gaetz notes here:

A note for media personalities eugolizing democracy & hyperventilating into a brown paper bag during all this:

A GOP President hasn’t been inaugurated absent some attempted congressional challenge to electors since 1989.

And, somehow, the Union held. https://t.co/7jdJkbsrnO

— Matt Gaetz (@mattgaetz) December 22, 2020

What’s different in this year, however, is that it won’t just be House members challenging the results but, if this holds true, Senator-elect Tommy Tuberville will join his Republican colleagues, and this sets intp motion a whole other chain of events:

Trump says he spoke to Tommy Tuberville last night. Tuberville had said he’d vote against codifying the electoral college results

— Sam Stein (@samstein) December 20, 2020

But, again, let’s stop the hyperventilating, a what’s going to happen is this will trigger debate and a delay in the process as the only way for a slate of electors to be excluded would be if the Dem-led House votes them down and that’s not going to happen. And it doesn’t have a chance in the Senate as well, unless some new bombshell gets dropped between now and January 6:

Oh my. Senate Majority Whip John Thune, to @mkraju on the House conservative effort to overturn the election results: “I think the thing they got to remember is, it’s not going anywhere. I mean in the Senate, it would go down like a shot dog.”

— Kristin Wilson (@kristin__wilson) December 22, 2020

More from Politico’s Jake Sherman:

OK — this is a thread about the Electoral College process on Capitol Hill. I put it in Playbook PM. Tomorrow is my last edition of Playbook PM.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

IN CASE YOU FORGOT, to launch a challenge to a state’s Electoral College’s results, a member of the House and a member of the Senate need to sign on. This has happened three times in the last 20 years: 2001, 2005 and 2017 — all by Democrats.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

IN OTHER WORDS, THIS ISN’T A ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY procedure — it’s relatively common, but it never works.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

HERE’S HOW IT WILL GO DOWN: A member of the House and Senate each need to sign on to a challenge to a state’s results. If that happens, the House and Senate each vote on the challenge. Both chambers have to vote affirmatively to accept the challenge.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

Neither chamber will accept a challenge– period. Won’t happen. Just like if you jump out the window and flap your arms, you won’t fly — Congress will reject any challenge if it even gets that far because the Democratic House will not vote to overturn the electoral results.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

THE VP TYPICALLY presides over the certification in his role as the president of the Senate. @jonathanvswan had an excellent report this morning about how TRUMP is turning on everyone, and how he would view PENCE certifying the results of the election as “the ultimate betrayal.”

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

WELL, PENCE DOESN’T HAVE TO if he doesn’t want to. If PENCE declines to show up, Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY, the 87-year-old Iowa Republican who is president pro tempore of the Senate, does it in his place. No sweat, no problem.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

IN 1969, HUBERT HUMPHREY declined to preside over the certification because he was the losing presidential candidate.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

So Deschler’s Precedent says this: “In the absence of the President of the Senate, the President pro tempore of the Senate presides over the joint session to count the electoral votes for President and Vice President.”

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

This is the precedent that was set in 1969. (h/t this terrific CRS report about the process by which Congress will certify the Electoral College https://t.co/OngyuyxzIq

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

OF COURSE, declining to show up is probably as bad as showing up and certifying the results, in TRUMP’S mind.

THE LARGER MORAL QUESTION is can PENCE preside if he has already been strategizing with the opposition.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

2 UNANSWERED questions that may have to be decided by Congress’ rules authorities in the coming days and weeks:

Can Congress vote to reject PENCE as the presiding officer because he has a stake in the outcome? Congress can practically do anything it wants with a majority vote.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

2) If PENCE does preside and goes to bat for TRUMP, can Congress overturn an unjust or improper ruling? This is also an open question.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

JAN. 6 will be a long day, given TRUMP has a crew of House Republicans willing to follow him down this idiotic rabbit hole. But this is going to fail in a spectacular fashion.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 22, 2020

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