The latest Quinnipiac poll on the generic ballot is out and now finds the Dem lead has fallen from +14 all the way down to +7:
Per Quinnipiac poll, Democrats now have a +7 lead on the generic ballot; their lead cut in half since mid-September (when it was +14)
"The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten." https://t.co/bRICRM8VlI
— Andrew Clark (@AndrewHClark) October 2, 2018
This could be an important finding since the polling was done during last week’s Kavanaugh drama:
New Quinnipiac generic ballot —
Democrat: 49%
Republican: 42%
(poll conducted September 27 – 30, amid Kavanaugh developments) https://t.co/YP1jRr8pxx— David Wright (@DavidWright_CNN) October 2, 2018
And “this is also the smallest lead Democrats have had on the Quinnipiac generic ballot poll since early July”:
This is also the smallest lead Democrats have had on the Quinnipiac generic ballot poll since early July.
— Andrew Clark (@AndrewHClark) October 2, 2018
Now for the potential buzzkill…
The old +14 number was seen as an outlier:
Good example of why you shouldn't just look at one poll (or one pollster). Current RCP average is Dems +7.4, this one is Dems +7. But because last Q poll was an outlier (Dems +14), hed is "GOP gaining ground." Maybe they are! But just comparing last 2 Q polls isn't worth much. https://t.co/CHFCG2CdGY
— Ben Pershing (@benpershing) October 2, 2018
And FWIW:
Choose your adventure … Q Poll has Dems up 7 on the generic — half as large of lead as other polls
(Rs believe they can win around 8) https://t.co/bKVLCDvZDR
— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) October 2, 2018
The latest average of recent polling shows a more modest 1-point decrease for the Dems:
The generic ballot has tightened a bit, to about an 8-point Democratic edge. It was 9 points a couple weeks ago. https://t.co/nSPeKmDTNc
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2018
And the latest 538 forecast does show things getting slightly worse for Dems:
Meanwhile, Democrats' House chances have fallen slightly to 3 in 4 from our forecast (from 4 in 5 before). And their Senate chances are down to 2 in 7 (from 3 in 10 before). https://t.co/yAkOpb3IoN
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2018
More from Quinnipiac here:
GOP Cuts into Dem Lead in House Races, Poll Finds; More Voters Want Democrats to Control Senate https://t.co/exfKMSxaO0 #Midterms2018
— Quinnipiac University Poll (@QuinnipiacPoll) October 2, 2018
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Related:
New polling out of ND should have Dems TERRIFIED of the Kavanaugh confirmation vote https://t.co/MEvtGiZEXm
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) October 2, 2018
