The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman has his first look at how redistricting will affect the 2022 election and, in short, it’s not a pretty picture for Dems:
New: our first (2,500+ word) look at the 2021 redistricting cycle, kicking off in just a few months, is now available to @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/slLuru6HVk pic.twitter.com/469HNq1ufq
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 26, 2021
Even though “Dems are much better prepared and GOP less dominant” this cycle. . .
Five big differences vs. 2011 redistricting cycle:
– Dems much better prepared and GOP less dominant
– New commissions in CO/MI/VA and to lesser extent NY/OH/UT
– New post-Shelby VRA implications
– Heightened public/court scrutiny
– Voters even more geographically pre-sorted pic.twitter.com/U8Z2Fva7nU— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 26, 2021
. . .the GOP advantage at the state level means “2021 redistricting *alone*” could “erase Dems’ thin House majority”:
Had Democrats not sued to overturn GOP-drawn maps in FL/NC/PA/VA the past few years, they wouldn't still be in the House majority today.
But Republicans could conceivably gain enough seats from 2021 redistricting *alone* to erase Dems' thin House majority.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 26, 2021
In summary, the “Democrats are in trouble next year”:
The Democrats are in trouble next year https://t.co/zctiacomDw
— Daniel Di Martino ???? (@DanielDiMartino) January 26, 2021
One bright spot for Dems may be in Ohio where Rep. Tim Ryan could easily run for Senate if he loses his seat:
Plus, there's a decent chance Republicans will eliminate Ryan's House district (#OH13) in redistricting. https://t.co/SHphxcg6Wc
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) January 25, 2021
The WaPo’s Greg Sargent also pointed out that Republicans will filibuster any Dem plan going through the Senate:
Republicans are set to unleash a whole new round of gerrymandering in 2021.
This chart tells the story, and it isn't pretty: https://t.co/d4ciCFVR8S
But it gets worse. GOP will filibuster the Dem package of pro-democracy reforms, including its rollback of gerrymandering: https://t.co/Oi1KjEw8Gq
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) January 26, 2021
This will also “protect” many of the Republicans who voted to challenge the election results:
How Gerrymandering Will Protect Republicans Who Challenged the Election
— via @reidepstein and @NYTnickc https://t.co/gk98VgdqDq
— Patrick Marley (@patrickdmarley) January 26, 2021
Of course, “gerrymandering” is only a bad word when Republicans do it:
“Gerrymandering” has a very clear definition: “any redistricting plan that is not favorable to my party.”
— Robert Tracinski (@Tracinski) January 26, 2021
Elections have consequences, Dems. Think local next time?
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