FiveThirtyEight is here to tell us what new data on gun recoveries can tell us about increased violence in 2020. The article “is a collaboration between FiveThirtyEight and The Trace, a nonprofit newsroom reporting on gun violence.”
“As the pandemic progressed, and gun sales continued to climb alongside shootings, researchers have puzzled over the connection between these two intersecting trends,” writes Champe Barton. The gist of the piece is, ATF data shows that in 2020, “police recovered almost twice as many guns with a short ‘time-to-crime’ — in this case, guns recovered within a year of their purchase” than in 2019.
What else was happening in 2020 besides the pandemic?
As the pandemic progressed, and gun sales continued to climb alongside shootings, researchers have puzzled over the connection between these two intersecting trends. Was the surge in violent crime related to the uptick in guns sold last year? https://t.co/3Uf3beO7G0
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) December 9, 2021
No. Saved you some time.
— Vader (@vaderwillwin) December 9, 2021
Other way around. But you know this.
— Mark (@markbitsko) December 9, 2021
Answer to any headline posed as a question is "No"
— Frank (@Frankyfigs315) December 9, 2021
No, and the evidence and data clearly shows the answer is no.
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) December 9, 2021
This is the poorest use of small data sets and recency bias since the feds created DOT and NHTSA. You should be embarassed.
— B.R. Kelley (@indmutation) December 9, 2021
Your use of small data sets combined with misrepresenting the data collected on this issue previously, is exactly why no one serious takes you seriously
— Cousin Danny in the Boro (@cuzzo_danny) December 9, 2021
If the only 2 metrics are "sales" & "shootings", then the study is flawed from the get-go. Unemployment, lack of law enforcement & lack of prosecution all factor as well.
— Wakko Warner (@tjztyger) December 9, 2021
Imagine calling yourself “data-driven” and then embarrassingly bastardizing the data to write this. 😂
— Never Wrong (@K0FaSho) December 9, 2021
I wonder what else could have happened in 2020 to reverse decades of no relationship between gun sales and crime rates.
— Reality Check (@KeeperofReal16) December 9, 2021
It couldn't possibly have anything to do with the unusual violence surrounding the BLM and ANTIFA riots, murders, assaults, defunding police, pulling them out of vulnerable neighborhoods, no bail release of violent offenders, stand down orders from city officials. Could it?
— Bailey (@coloradopatriot) December 9, 2021
Gun sales continue to climb because of crime. When people don't feel safe and can't rely on the police they buy guns.
— Colby Badhwar (@ColbyBadhwar) December 9, 2021
It is common sense. Unless citizens could protect themselves the deaths would be much higher. Thus the increase in gun sales (by legal citizens for defense of their own self, homes, and family) as the crime grows.
— RodsAndGuitars (@CurtisioUsa) December 9, 2021
Absolutely it has… everyone is realizing when seconds count the cops are only an hour away, if at all. The surge is BECAUSE of the rise in crime not the other way around.
— Cornpop (@springerbuster1) December 9, 2021
Maybe it was the surge in violence (predominantly in poorly run Democrat cities with their support of BLM riots and the de-fund the police movement) that led to the increased gun sales?
— Based Black Swan (@Basedblackswan) December 9, 2021
The uptick in guns sold is related to the surge in violent crime and the lunacy of defunding the police.
— Doc7 (@kildea_m) December 9, 2021
Gun ownership skyrocketed through the 90s into the 2000s as violent crime fell off a cliff.
There's no evidence these things are connected at all.
On the other hand, all the defunding/abuse of police and breaking of our justice system does coincide.
— Myrddraal (@HandOfTheDark) December 9, 2021
Long term trends say no. pic.twitter.com/M4A0LeiIiS
— Takeshi7 (@takeshi7) December 9, 2021
Uhhh, was the prior 30 year drop in violent crime related to the 30 year spike in sales?
— Conservative (@CalumetCoRepub) December 9, 2021
Then the 30 year decrease in crime we had before the pandemic was due to the 30 year explosion of gun sales that happened at the same time
30 years of data trumps 21 months of data
— Craig Cochrane (@ccochrane64) December 9, 2021
How about the preceding 30-year surge in gun sales that intersected with a 30-year decline in crime? https://t.co/RR3kHxjarR
— David Harsanyi (@davidharsanyi) December 9, 2021
— 👆🏻 (@whitesoxfan40) December 9, 2021
How stupid are you people for even asking this dumb question? Good grief!
— 🎄 Deb H 🎄 (@deb_h7) December 9, 2021
Not the same people you idiots
— Richard Murray (@rightiousindgnt) December 9, 2021
This is nonsensical cherry picked data pic.twitter.com/JAMCKlZpgy
— Dutch’s Little Wiener (@14_dutch) December 9, 2021
Enough with the political agenda @FiveThirtyEight!
You are a data site and this tweet goes against reasonable analysis of the data.
Please do better.
— Burt Schoeppe (@BurtSchoeppe) December 9, 2021
As someone said above, nice try.
CNN gets reality checked after attributing gun sales spike in US to ‘Capitol Hill insurrection’ https://t.co/iGeXkTuzzi
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) February 5, 2021