Here’s a rather lengthy thread inspired by a talk David Frum had with a friend after the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago and galvanized support among Donald Trump’s base. Remember, according to that Newsweek exclusive, the raid on Trump’s home was supposed to be a low-profile event, so the former president couldn’t use it for a photo op or to grandstand. Newsweek reported that that plan failed spectacularly, and Trump supporters are viewing the FBI as a political cudgel against Joe Biden’s likely opponent in 2024.
Frum says that’s an “unwelcome but important fact to face,” and that newly galvanized Trump supporters mean that only Rep. Liz Cheney could reasonably challenge him for the Republican primary.
Unwelcome but important fact to face
Trump absconding with the country's highest secrets – storing them unsafely – and then lying about returning them – SHOULD have upset his supposedly patriotic supporters.
It didn't.
If anything …
1/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
If anything, the latest Trump scandal has strengthened Trump's hold, not only on his core support, but on the broader GOP.
A friend tightly connected to major GOP donors wrote me over the weekend about this.
2/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
My friend's observation:
"Among the Republicans I know and have polled, a majority of them were for DeSantis and now all for Trump, almost no matter what comes out. Maybe that doesn’t hold, but maybe it shockingly does. …"
3/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
My friend added:
"Maybe that doesn’t hold, but maybe it shockingly does. I don’t see in fact how anyone other than Lynne Cheney can even announce against Trump much less defeat him. It's just pointless. Unless all charges are dropped, in which case Trump looks vindicated."
4/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
We’re pretty sure he meant Liz Cheney, not Lynne (our apologies if we’re wrong), and there’s no chance Trump is vindicated: the walls are closing in for real this time.
Recommended
This political reality clarifies many mysteries, including why Gov DeSantis has been so outspoken on Trump's behalf. DeSantis could have refused comment: "ongoing legal proceeding." That would have been the alpha move. DeSantis was constrained to act the beta instead, because 5/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
… because DeSantis has to keep alive the likelihood that he may be competing for position as Trump's running mate in 2024 rather than the nominee. I am sure DeSantis hates that reality, but he is already accommodating to it – as are, apparently, the DeSantis mega-donors.
6/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
See also the coverage on Fox News. They spent much of 2022 trying to ignore Trump and showcase DeSantis. Now it's Trump adulation and justification all over again. And every right-wing and pseudo left-wing talker who aspires to Fox airtime has had to follow along. 7/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
None of this is to endorse the proposition that DoJ and FBI should have ignored this latest Trump outrage. US secrets are important. But doing the right thing w/r/t to Trump is seldom cost-free.
8/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
Others disagree, but in my opinion, a DeSantis GOP nomination in 2024 represented a much better outcome for the whole country than a Trump return. Maybe you don't like DeSantis's manner or record, but he's a recognizably normal US politician. If defeated, he'd go peacefully. 9/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
We’d be very happy with a President Ron DeSantis.
Instead, it looks like the country has been plunged back into the thicket of Trumpist autocracy. Trump controls a majority of the support within the minority party. Anti-democracy is his only route to power – and theirs. 10/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
“The country has been plunged back into the thicket of Trumpist autocracy.”
Again, this is not to endorse letting Trump off the hook. An ex-president doesn't deserve impunity for crimes just because he leads an anti-democratic faction who will capsize democracy rather than accept accountability for their leader's misdeeds. But … 11/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
… But it is to say that any hopes that the country was returning to democratic stability after Trump look (again) misplaced and over-optimistic. I wanted to hold those hopes, I tried to hold those hopes, but my hopes are dimming this week. 12/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
Is Frum going to be OK?
It's shocking that so many would excuse literally anything to protect Trump. But they do. DeSantis is accommodating himself to that reality, playing Mar a Lago beta to ingratiate himself with the likely top of the '24 GOP ticket. Those who would defend US democracy … 13/x
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
… should be as realistic as DeSantis. Trump's base is not reforming. That base's control of the wider GOP coalition is not weakening. US democracy is not recovering. The dangers ahead are not diminishing.
END.
— David Frum (@davidfrum) August 15, 2022
What is this fear of U.S. democracy ending that the Left is so concerned about?
Related:
Margot Cleveland examines why the DOJ selected the statues it did for raid on Mar-a-Lago https://t.co/dvgrJbUaDX
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) August 14, 2022
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