The Hill apparently didn’t think that Americans were panicked enough about the coronavirus, so they decided to promote some worst-case models that estimate the U.S. death toll to eventually reach more than 1.5 million people.

Reid Wilson reports:

One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.

Another model built by experts at Resolve to Save Lives, a global health nonprofit, and the Council on Foreign Relations found the number of potential deaths could range from as few as 163,500, if the virus is no more deadly than seasonal influenza, to more than 1.6 million if the virus carries a mortality rate of just 1 percent.

So statistical models say the U.S. death toll could range anywhere from 163,500 to 1.7 million. Got it.

“This is a rapidly evolving situation and information is changing quickly. Estimates based on data from other countries might not be applicable to the United States and it is unclear how the COVID-19 situation will play out in this country,” a CDC spokesman said.


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