Many MSM polls continue to assume Democrat turnout in 2012 similar to (or better than) that in 2008:

But the Cook Political Report’s Virginia Absentees Tracker, updated yesterday, shows early voting has declined dramatically in Va. counties that supported Democrats in previous presidential elections:

  • Kerry 2004 localities: down 18.1%
  • Obama 2008 localities: down 13.6%

By contrast, early voting has held up well in GOP-leaning counties:

  • Bush 2004 localities: down 1.7%
  • McCain 2008 localities: down 1.2%

These data are not based on polls. These are actual ballots cast by actual voters.

In 2008, Obama won Virginia by 7 points, 53-46.

  • RDPortland

    What do they expect? Obama trashed the Navy, which is a big part of Virginia’s coastal economy, with ties through the rest of the state.

    If Obama can’t win big in early voting, he’s certainly not going to win Election Day.

    • ChHarrison

      Don’t forget coal country in southwest Virginia.

    • Melissa Pollard Churchwell

      i agree 100%

    • Mamaelk09

      Unfortunately I know one person IN the Navy who is voting for Oblooper, I am sadly related to her.

      • RDPortland

        Well, despite her misguided views, God bless her for her service.

      • VAMOM2

        As we say in the south…”Well, bless her heart” :)

  • James Atkins

    Trust me, I live in south eastern Virginia. Virginia will go to Romney large. It isn’t even close.

    • BeyondPolls

      I can totally vouch for the visible conservative support, but it’s encouraging to hear it from eastern VA. :)

    • Gingernlw

      I’m dismayed by the amount of o signs in Glo tho.

      • James Atkins

        As in Gloucester? I haven’t been over there in awhile. Gloucester will not carry Obama to victory in Virginia. :)

  • VAMOM2

    I live in Roanoke, home of the famous “You didn’t build that!” comment, and see way more Romney/Ryan signs compared to Oblamer/Bygone. Trust me, Northern Virginia we are not!

    • James Atkins

      Yup, Obama stronghold that is Alexandria and Fairfax, numbers are down from what I read, and I believe it.

  • soJa

    How could voting be down for Republicans from ’08? Seriously. I would have bet on a positive turn-out from ’08. I know the final tally is all that matters, but come on Virginia, get a move on! DO IT

    • nstehle

      It could easily be that that 1.x% accounts for a 10% reduction in the number of Democrats voting in those GOP counties, and a 9% increase in the number of Republicans voting. No worries.

  • Danny

    The People’s Republic of Charlottesville is WAY different this election. Hardly any O’ signs, shocking the neighborhoods I see Romney signs in.

  • Danny

    The People’s Republic of Charlottesville is WAY different this election. Hardly any O’ signs, shocking the neighborhoods I see Romney signs in.

  • gobrenda3

    I live in Oregon and in 08 there was a SEA of Obama signs and bumper stickers. Now-there is next to 0. We went to a gas station last night and there were 2 cashiers- one with
    an Obama mask on and one with a R mask on. There was a sign that said, “If you are voting for R, stand in this line. If voting for O, stand in this line.” The line for Romney went all the way to the back of the store. There was NO ONE in the Obama line. The O cashier kept saying, “i can help you over here” but everyone refused to move over to the O line- even to check out faster! haha I live in Dem country- it’s true blue out here to the point of nausea (if one is a Repub). So this is VERY telling and quite amazing that the media has been able to cover up the TRUE sentiment of the country.

    • Guest

      I live in Oregon as well-Where was this Gas station-Luv It!!! I live in Portland and Portland is very liberal and I do believe that Oregon will go towards Obama, but not a landslide like in 08.

    • ked5

      I live outside seattle (which overwhelms the rest of the state to turn it blue) – four years ago, you coudn’t escape bozo signs. Now, I’ve only seen a very few on my trips into seattle, and none where I live.

  • disqus_eric

    I’m waiting for the D+100 poll w/ Obama leading by 1.

  • Melissa Pollard Churchwell

    All i can say is WE GOTTA HAVE MITT!!

  • Melissa Pollard Churchwell

    I have to agree with Dick Morris, landslide for Romney. I dont like Obama, so there wont be any regrets voting him out.

  • ArcPolitic

    I am in Arlington and there are a lot of Dems up here, but I think that Romney is having a really strong showing. I am sure you peoples down SE & SW will help put us over the top. I do not see how VA could go to Obama after what he has done to this country, especially the Military. 500 post-generals and admirals all just endorsed Romney… that tell you something.