Many MSM polls continue to assume Democrat turnout in 2012 similar to (or better than) that in 2008:
But the Cook Political Report’s Virginia Absentees Tracker, updated yesterday, shows early voting has declined dramatically in Va. counties that supported Democrats in previous presidential elections:
- Kerry 2004 localities: down 18.1%
- Obama 2008 localities: down 13.6%
By contrast, early voting has held up well in GOP-leaning counties:
- Bush 2004 localities: down 1.7%
- McCain 2008 localities: down 1.2%
These data are not based on polls. These are actual ballots cast by actual voters.
In 2008, Obama won Virginia by 7 points, 53-46.