WaPo Virginia poll with Obama up 4 is D+8 (was D+6 in 08, R+4 in 04). So yes, if Dems can outdo their 2008 WAVE election in turnout, O wins—
TheRightWing (@teapartiedUSA) October 28, 2012
The big news in this poll is not that President Obama is supposedly ahead by 4 points in Virginia, but that the Washington Post has once again foisted a Democrat-skewed sample upon its readership.
Check out the party breakdown:
- Democrat 31%
- Republican 23%
- Independent 36%
- Other/Don’t Know 9%
So this is a D+8 sample. By comparison, the 2008 Virginia exit poll sample, taken when Obama-mania was at its peak, was 39D/33R/27I, or merely D+6.
In other words, the Washington Post poll presumes a political environment in Virginia that is more hospitable to Democrats today than it was in 2008.
Savvy poll-watchers aren’t falling for it:
We’ll see on November 6th.