'Gut check': Nate Silver's latest forecast finds 'Clinton's lead isn't totally safe'

With four days to go, this should have Dems pooping in their underpants.

Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver with his analysis of where the election stands right now:

Trump is about 3 points behind Clinton — and 3-point polling errors happen pretty often. https://t.co/U4wH1zRgT7

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016

And this 3-point lead “isn’t totally safe”:

You can get more complicated about how you model the error, of course. But this is a good gut-check that Clinton's lead isn't totally safe.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016

Clinton is having trouble in New Hampshire, Michigan and Pennsylvania:

NH, MI and PA have shown a lot of tightening lately. WI numbers better for her. CO, VA tightening, but probably not enough for Trump.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016

While Siver sees Florida, North Carolina and Nevada as “toss ups”:

FL, NC, NV remain tossups in polls (though NV leans Dem based on early voting). Map getting messier—not a clear firewall for Clinton.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2016

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