The 5 stages of grief are usually listed as: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression and Acceptance.
However, here’s an updated poll-version from FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver for panicked Hillary Clinton supporters as we head into tonight’s debate:
1. Unskewing
2. Anger
3. "Hillary's internals must have her way ahead"
4. Depression
5. Acceptance— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 26, 2016
We’re probably at No. 3 as David Plouffe did just say an interview with the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent that Clinton’s internal polling does show her winning and is better than the media’s “Cheetos” polls:
DAVID PLOUFFE: Some polls closely capture where the race stands. But they’re very incomplete. The Clinton campaign is doing large samples for modeling surveys of everybody on the voter file. So you have a very good understanding of how you believe 100 percent of the electorate will be allocated on election day.
When you look at how 100 percent of the vote is likely to be allocated in Florida, I get very optimistic….I can get Donald Trump to within two or three in Pennsylvania, but I can’t get him to a win number. The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll, but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300 [in the electoral college]. Trump has to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.
As for Silver, he sees the race as all tied up:
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It's a dead heat. https://t.co/w05RSS9r0M
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 26, 2016
And getting worse for Clinton:
The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 26, 2016
Nat'l polls this weekend: Trump +4, Trump +2, Trump +1, Clinton +1, Clinton +2, Clinton +2, Clinton +3. Dead heat. https://t.co/oAkp7rSBjm
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 26, 2016
State polls this weekend:
CO: Trump +1, Trump +4, Clinton +1
PA: Clinton +1, Clinton +2
OH: Trump +1
VA: Clinton +6, Clinton +8
Dead heat.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 26, 2016
Evidence that the race is a dead heat—or at least dead-ish heat-ish—is starting us in the face. Not some complex conclusion from our model.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 26, 2016
Time for depression, Brooklyn.
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