Ruh-roh, Democrats.
Michigan’s early mail ballots are already cutting against the usual script.
Hey, we're as surprised as you are.
Returns from counties Donald Trump carried have climbed to 46 percent of the mail total, up from 45.3 percent a day earlier and well ahead of the 43.4 percent those same counties held at the four-week mark in 2022. The shift is modest on paper and still early in the cycle, but it is landing in a midterm where Democrats are running a nominee who has already drawn open pushback from parts of the party’s own coalition, and where neither an abortion measure nor a hardline anti-abortion Republican is on the ballot to juice turnout the way both did four years ago. Election watchers are treating the county mix as an early tell, and the working theory is that the top of the Democratic ticket may be part of why Trump country is returning ballots faster than it did last time.
Michigan is bucking conventional wisdom. Mail returns keep tilting toward Trump country: Trump-won counties' share climbed from 45.3% yesterday to 46.0% today. They had 43.4% at the four-week mark in 2022. https://t.co/2Ule3hiYtH
— petebray (@petebray) October 8, 2026
Almost as if running an Islamic socialist is a bad idea.
I wonder if it’s anything to do with the Democrat nominee?!
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 8, 2026
Oooh, oooh, we know!
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