Another day, another “gulp” moment for Dems, this time in Nevada where a new poll from Suffolk University/USA TODAY shows incumbents Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak struggling ahead of the midterm election.
First up, Sen. Masto trails Republican Adam Laxalt by 3%:
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll
Race for U.S. Senate
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 40%
Adam Laxalt (R) 43%
None of these candidates 3%
Undecided 14%Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 39%
Sam Brown (R) 40%
None of these candidates 5%
Undecided 17%— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) April 12, 2022
And Gov. Sisolak isn’t doing much better:
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll
Race for Governor
Sisolak (D) 37%
Lombardo (R) 39%Sisolak (D) 39%
Heller (R) 39%Sisolak (D) 41%
Nohra (R) 29%Sisolak (D) 37%
Lee (R) 40%Sisolak (D) 39%
Gilbert (R) 35%— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) April 12, 2022
Sorry, Dems. Inflation and the jobs/economy are the two top issues. What was that inflation number again?
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll of likely general election voters
Top Issue
Inflation 25%
Jobs/economy 15%
Russia – Ukraine war 10%
Climate change 10%
Schools/education 9%
Affordable housing 8%
Crime/guns 8%
Healthcare 6%
Drugs/opioids 2%
COVID-19 2%— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) April 12, 2022
Now, before you read any spin from Dems and team Biden, here’s veteran Nevada reporter Jon Ralston with the reality check: “Even though both races [are] within [the] MOE, these are very ominous results for @GovSisolak and @SenCortezMasto:”
A semi-detailed thread on new NV polling by Suffolk for @rgj in pivotal gov and Senate races. (Suffolk is a good pollster, FYI.) Headline: Even though both races within MOE, these are very ominous results for @GovSisolak and @SenCortezMasto for several reasons. Here's why:
1/5— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) April 12, 2022
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Ralston suggests it’s “time to reach for the panic button” as they’re below 40% AND getting killed in rural areas:
1. If you are an incumbent below 50 percent, that's a warning sign. But drop to 40 percent or below, it's time to reach for the panic button.
2. The rural numbers, if right, are horrific for Dems. Single digits! And rurals play bigger role in midterms.
2/5— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) April 12, 2022
And Dem strongholds like Clark County look “soft” to Ralston:
3. Clark, where Dems need to win big, looks soft. Washoe, where Dems had been doing well, now tilts R. Huge rural wins, losing by under double digits in Clark and small Washoe win=R victory.
4. 1st Latina senator barely over 50 % w/Hispanics, gov below 50! Big leads, but..
3/5— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) April 12, 2022
He added that “this poll is a sign that every Dem incumbent should worry (and there are many in NV!) and that a red wave is building that could carry a weak slate of GOP candidates to wins”:
Sure, any poll can be wrong — although internals look solid. And miles to go before we vote. But this poll is a sign that every Dem incumbent should worry (and there are many in NV!) and that a red wave is building that could carry a weak slate of GOP candidates to wins.
4/5— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) April 12, 2022
And don’t look to the president for any help:
Biden's fave in NV: 38%https://t.co/dY4VnOv4mg
— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) April 13, 2022
It does look like Dems realize they have a problem. Here’s Lincoln Project co-founder Reed Galen begging Sen. Masto to start spending some of her cash:
.@SenCortezMasto – your campaign reserved $20 million in ad time for September/October. You need to start spending now. Your in-state name-ID is too low. The Reps will define you soon. Tell your team to get moving. #NVSEN https://t.co/dtVnpUblhK
— Reed Galen (@reedgalen) April 13, 2022
More here:
We will be releasing some polls during the next month from @OHPredictive, so we will see what they say, too.
Here is the link to the @rgj stories, results and crosstabs:https://t.co/UBAbuhy8Llhttps://t.co/YeuD35lb6U
5/5— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) April 12, 2022
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Related:
New polls from CBS and ABC show why Biden and Dems are in trouble ahead of the midterms
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