Guys, it’s time to start taking Hurricane Florence seriously:
Hurricane Florence may end up being the worst natural disaster in recorded history for the Carolinas and Virginia. 3 to 4 feet of rain, IF predictions hold! BIG news week developing…
— MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE) September 10, 2018
The latest models all have Florence hitting somewhere near the South Carolina-North Carolina border:
Every model we have is now on board with Hurricane #Florence making landfall in North Carolina late Thursday night.
Time to lock it in.
The main questions are now:
How strong? — likely Category 4
How long? — likely lingering for 3-4 days after landfall = major flood threat pic.twitter.com/TzWJ8Cc1kK
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 10, 2018
And the storm is expected to intensify over the next 48 hours:
The intensification of Hurricane #Florence could be very rapid … to high-end Category 4 in under 48-hours. The maximum intensity is still a blind spot in our forecasting but most signals are toward rapid intensification. #TropicalUpdate pic.twitter.com/abdS7t2qtG
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 10, 2018
The NHC is warning of “life-threatening” storm surge and freshwater flooding:
Here are the key messages on Hurricane #Florence as of 5pm EDT. Florence is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow, and there is an increasing risk of coastal storm surge flooding and freshwater flooding from heavy prolonged rainfall when the hurricane approaches the U.S. pic.twitter.com/SqfUHdFCvE
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 9, 2018
In terms of historical comparisons, Joe Bastardi tweets it “could be as strong as Hazel or Hugo,” which were devastating to the area:
In terms of intensity at landfall could be as strong as Hazel or Hugo (benchmarks in the Carolinas) but those moved thru This will crawl and perhaps stall.UNLIKE HARVEY, WHICH WAS COLD TROF TRAPPED. this is a displaced strong subtropical ridge scenario, with storm getting caught
— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 9, 2018
But even if Florence maks the turn north and doesn’t come ashore, there is still a major threat of inland flooding akin to what we saw with Hurricane Harvey in Houston:
Hurricane #Florence will produce rainfall totals in its aftermath of 15-25" or more — and has a good chance at becoming the rainiest hurricane ever to hit the East Coast.
This is a widespread *catastrophic* flooding forecast. https://t.co/8lSCNOl3nn
— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 9, 2018
Meteorologists are worried that Florence will just stall out over the area, like Harvey did last year:
"There is real concern that #Florence will slow or stall over the Mid-Atlantic Friday through next weekend & produce disastrous amounts of rain, although it is too soon to pinpoint where." More info: https://t.co/sFjqgm82DE (Pictured NWS 7-day rain forecast, likely conservative) pic.twitter.com/t6siT06SIT
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) September 9, 2018
Governors of NC, SC and Virginia have all declared states of emergency ahead of the storm:
— ABC News (@ABC) September 10, 2018
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