Just prior to Colorado’s recall election, the liberal-leaning pollsters at Public Policy Polling Company conducted a poll of likely voters in Angela Giron’s district (Senate District 3). The poll showed Giron losing by 12 points, a finding that we now know was spot-on but seemed bizarre at the time … so bizarre, in fact, that PPP chose not to publish it.

Now PPP is receiving fire not only from some conservatives but also from FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver for its decision to withhold those results from the public.

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/377854385503870977

PPP acknowledges that it routinely withholds results from the public, especially if it there are red flags in the results:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377827592813805568

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377827749643042816

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377827979537035264

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377828390918569984

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377829001986719744

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377829247554813953

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377830093143281664

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377830290455937024

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377830495590952960

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377831249416445952

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377831348859179008

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377836300201504768

PPP specifically addressed Silver’s complaint:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377852568505831424

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377852820776427520

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377852941215887360

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377853458000252928

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377854548892581888

Silver isn’t backing down:

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/377854751721136128

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/377856102094086144

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/377857078486138880

Update:

Washington Examiner reporter Rebecca Berg has only one question:

https://twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/377859477678325760

* * * 

Update:

PPP has apologized for defending itself in public in response to Silver’s (very public) attacks:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/377872546713968641

And this guy makes a good point:

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/377865257730846720

 

* * * 

Related:

Bombshell: Tancredo polling even with Hickenlooper in Pueblo, Colo.

  • Codewizard

    PPP is a liberal outfit. Duh, what did you expect?

    Shocked anyone pointed it out though.

  • Jack Deth

    Memo to Nate Silver and all those who have metriculated through or dropped out of Ivy League J~Schools:

    Get your facts straight and triple check them BEFORE you embarrass yourself!

    • Codewizard

      Maybe you should do the same?

      You rant, but you do not present facts to back up your ASSertions.

      • Jack Deth

        Says the assclown who lives in his mom’s basement and gets paid in stipends from Media Matters.

        But then, when have facts ever mattered to you?

        • Zanshi

          From everything I’ve read re: Codewizard, he’s a staunch conservative. Stop knee-jerking!

    • http://www.vatican.va/ Rulz

      ……you do realize that out of all of the pundits that Silver predicted every state in the presidential election correctly, right down to the close race in Florida.

      Having an Ivy League degree probably doesn’t mean as much as you think about actual intellect and common sense.

      That’s been proven over and over by RINOs and the left.

      • ChicagoJohn

        “…you do realize that out of all of the pundits that Silver predicted
        every state in the presidential election correctly, right down to the
        close race in Florida.”

        You do realize that first of all, he was mostly reading polls.
        And that secondly, it wasn’t a typical election… that Democrats had been stirred to the polls with cries of “War on women”, and that if they hadn’t, Nate would have a lot of egg on his face.

        • kozzzer219

          ” it wasn’t a typical election…”
          Maybe. But that is the point. Silver was able to read what was going to happen.
          If he felt that liberals weren’t going to be going to the polls, his results would have been different.

          • ChicagoJohn

            Well, no. Nate predicted two coin flips in a row. The first coin flip was an easy prediction. The second one? Still a 50/50 chance.
            He predicted twice in a row that a Democrat would win the toss up states. When he correctly predicts that a GOP presidential candidate wins, I’ll start to listen.

          • kozzzer219

            Shouldn’t you listen to him when he guesses correctly, not when he guesses for the candidate you like?
            He basically uses an algorithm. His math equations are not politically biased, especially considering he guessed the vast majority of the winners correctly that Rs won Senate and house seats that were in contention.

          • ChicagoJohn

            You’re projecting, and arguing emotionally, not logically.
            If you read my argument, my point is that he predicted that the candidate that he favored would win. Yes?

            If Karl Rove had predicted correctly, does that make him a good prognosticator? No. It would mean that the candidate that he wanted to win… won.

            You wrote:
            “…especially considering he guessed the vast majority of the winners correctly”

            Which anyone could have done, based on the polls.
            The most toss-up poll was the actual presidential election. But even I, a Republican, would have told you that it was most likely that Obama was going to win.

            I’m guessing that you call yourself a kozzer because you followed him at the Daily Kos. Yes?

          • kozzzer219

            “Which anyone could have done, based on the polls.”
            But no one else did as good a job as predicting each individual state, nor each individual race, as he did, or at the least very few did.
            There is a difference in saying that you think Obama is going to win, and using a mathematical algorithm to figure out that he is going to win.

          • ChicagoJohn

            Quick: name two other people who guessed who would win the election state by state?
            Can’t name any?
            Neither can most.

            This is the thing, the “mathematical algorithm” you speak of was basically him just going through the polls, state by state. I can’t think of any state where he went against what the polls were saying. Can you?

          • ChicagoJohn

            Quick: name two other people who guessed who would win the election state by state?
            Can’t name any?
            Neither can most.

            This is the thing, the “mathematical algorithm” you speak of was basically him just going through the polls, state by state. I can’t think of any state where he went against what the polls were saying. Can you?

          • ChicagoJohn

            You’re projecting, and arguing emotionally, not logically.
            If you read my argument, my point is that he predicted that the candidate that he favored would win. Yes?

            If Karl Rove had predicted correctly, does that make him a good prognosticator? No. It would mean that the candidate that he wanted to win… won.

            You wrote:
            “…especially considering he guessed the vast majority of the winners correctly”

            Which anyone could have done, based on the polls.
            The most toss-up poll was the actual presidential election. But even I, a Republican, would have told you that it was most likely that Obama was going to win.

            I’m guessing that you call yourself a kozzer because you followed him at the Daily Kos. Yes?

  • The Penguin #PublishThatSh*t

    It’s not what we wanted…so it must be wrong.

    • WhoMeToo

      B-I-N-G-O!

  • BorderLine Guy

    They freely admit that their intuition sucks horribly. For them they are hiding behind “intuition” when it’s simply liberal bias.

  • Citizen Loring

    I respect 538 and Nate Silver, PPP is very biased though. I notice they never release results that make Democrats look bad.

    • Electradivine

      I agree Nate is really the only pollster I listen to, he throws in all the polls right leaning left leaning solid ground ones and averages it out

  • therealguyfaux

    “Because we had no idea what we were doing because this sort of election was unprecedented, and we didn’t think we even asked the right question because we were getting a ‘counterintuitive’ result, we decided that the poll was an embarrassment to all concerned, and so we buried it– little did we know it would turn out right, actually! But because it doesn’t quite jibe with our beliefs, we want to have it both ways, and claim credit for getting it right, but show that we were possessed of an excess of caution and so we erred on that side.”

    That’s what they’re saying, now that the dust settled.
    And I publish the real line on the Super Bowl and the O/U on Monday, to show I got it right, too, even though it never appeared, because if it had, it would have shown too much money was going to the NFC team and “under,” a counterintuitive situation.
    Pull the other one, it’s got bells on.

  • TDS

    Makes me wonder:
    Maybe it’s their OTHER polls, you know, he ones that are PRO-gun control, that are the skewed polls.

  • $9084816

    solid reasons to not use that poll for any reason

  • BigTBoom

    PPP polling statistics show that only 1 out of every 10 polls taken support their beliefs. /s

  • http://extremesplash.wordpress.com/ Ben Bollman

    I think Nate Silver is himself at least a little biased in his polling but I give him credit for calling PPP out in it’s obvious biases.

    • ChicagoJohn

      I have to agree with you.
      I’ve never met a polling-related person who has more of a personal bias then Nate. But you gotta give him props here.

      • Love of Country

        Well I’ve personally never met any pollsters but we all may as well give Nate plenty of props because he was the only pollster I knew of who was spot-on in 2012. Karl Rove, Rasmussen, Dick Morris, Gallup …. they were all way, way off. HeII, Dick Morris is STILL hiding under his desk after that wicked debacle!

        Long story short …. I thought Nate was full of it in 2012 but he proved us all wrong ….. so he gets props for that and today he gets props for taking on the PPP. Something strange is going on, lol.

        • ChicagoJohn

          First off, Nate isn’t a pollster. He’s an analyst.
          Secondly, lumping Karl Rove, Rasmussen, Dick Morris, and Gallup into the same grouping is bizarre.
          Rove is an advocate, and has never hidden that. Morris is a pundit, but no one has ever looked to Morris for predicting elections. The idea that either two of those men were somehow polling analysts was only forwarded after the last election… because no one has ever suggested that we should look to Morris or Rove for predictions.

          Yes, Rassmussen was off, and so was Gallup. But the “why” isn’t something to just look past.
          The election was about a heavy Democrat turnout that no one had predicted. If that heavy Democratic turnout hadn’t occurred, Nate would have had a lot of egg on his face.
          Nate started election analysis with Barack Obama’s election. That’s literally the only president who’s results he got right. In an election that could have swung 5 points either way, its far, far, far too early to give him credit for getting that 5 percent swing right.

          • BJ001

            No one predicted all of the Obama voter fraud.

          • Love of Country

            I think I prolly did …. I mean not necessarily on these boards or in the news but I remember fully anticipating it. And I knew we were in trouble when Harry Reid was reelected this last time, lol.

          • Love of Country

            He fricken nailed it while all the people I entrusted got it way wrong ….. that’s all I’m saying. Now you can say he did this or he did that and it was all blind luck and all that. But that seems just a tad ridiculous to me. His peeps went door to door to door and he was spot-on when everyone else was dead wrong.

            Nate knew turnout was going to be high but yet you said no one could have predicted it. Well he did and I’m here to acknowledge it while Dick Morris hasn’t been seen or heard from in about two years.

          • ChicagoJohn

            “Nate knew turnout was going to be high but yet you said no one could have predicted it.”

            I said that no one predicted a heavy DEM turnout. Not a heavy turnout.
            You’re taking this waaaaay too personally, and if you want to be a Nate fanboy, cool. Awesome.
            Just don’t suggest that Dick Morris is/has been on TV to predict elections. He’s on TV to make political commentary.

      • GrindingMills

        I don’t think the personal bias of the pollster matters provided that their results are accurate, and Nate Silver has been spot on. Unfortunately he was really correct in 2012.

        • ChicagoJohn

          Nate has been right twice… and both times involved the POTUS who has broken many of the traditional rules of polling. In most elections, a president who is in office while the economy has a 7% plus unemployment rate? He would be out.

          Democrats have been very successful in getting their people out for two elections in a row. How much do you want to bet that they won’t be able to do it for 3 in a row if the unemployment rate is 7%?

  • jukin

    I think PPP expected a lot more democrat party voter fraud than what actually happened.

  • http://www.vatican.va/ Rulz

    “We are a private polling company. 90% of the polling we do is never released to the public, just like other private polling companies…”

    Give me a break! They were more than happy to show Akin up by 1 in Missouri and essentially like to show that democrats will always win in blue, purple and even some red states.

    • ScottinVA

      And that polled they showed with Akin up by 1, right after that fatal “rape pregnancy” comment had a sampling of R+9, whereas the breakdown in MO is about R+1. PPP, which, BTW is a democrat polling outfit, skewed that result to entice Akin to remain in the race. Only after the withdrawal deadline had passed, had the polls reflected the more accurate result of McCaskill +8.

  • Clete Torres

    …found a counter intuitive result- 1/3rd of Dems supporting recall…

    Yet it never dawned on them that the 1/3 of Dems that supported recall just might actually be pro 2A.

    • walterc

      That’s the problem. They seem ot think that be a pro obama democrat automatically makes you pro obama gun control. Not so much in the Western states. Even Colorado it seems.

    • US vs. Them

      Now now, that would ruin the “all Democrats/Liberals hate freedom and are trying to destroy America with Communism, socialism, health-care (especially with those you-know-who welfare queens) and by TAKING AWAY OUR GUNS” that is the entire existence of Twitchy.

  • Ham Boner

    In their blog PPP posts they “made a rare decision” not to post, but their 12:14 Tweet says they don’t release 90% of their polls. 90% is not rare. So which is it?

    • ChicagoJohn

      More importantly… we’ve just found out that PPP doesn’t release 90% of their polls. I wonder what else was suppressed.

    • RiverRat

      Nothing better than watching libs crab away from something when caught .

  • Bill Person

    Jenson exposed himself worse than weiner did!!! That’s small “W”

  • ChicagoJohn

    Maybe PPP could find some way of supporting their assertion that 1/3rd of all democrats wouldn’t be for a recall?
    Perhaps… if they took a poll….
    /sarc

  • TJ

    Is there anyway to cause a voter suppression pre-election telephone poll as NRA has found away or something.

  • KhadijahMuhammad

    Isn’t the only real purpose of a “polling firm” to discover data which is counterintuitive?

  • KhadijahMuhammad

    If you’re only going to publish “intuitively correct” data, why do we need you?

  • Stephen K

    Does anyone else read a bit of a threat in Greg (JournoFister) Sargent’s tweet?

    “Getting a little bit close to the plantation fence there, Nate. You may want to take a few steps back toward the cotton field.”

  • OldmanRick

    How’s that go? oh yes, Don’t let facts get in the way of an opinion.

  • johnshroeder

    So, did PPP “Ivylibs” say to themselves, “33% of Dems vote for recall. They cannot be THAT patriotic, smart or Constitution-oriented! The question must have confused them. Were hanging chads possibly involved” ???

  • http://Twitter.com/jkerrysforehead John Kerry’s Forehead

    Got news for everyone…it isn’t just Republicans who value their Constitional rights and the recall was more likely a message not to infringe on those rights. Just because someone is OK with, say, smaller capacity magazines or background checks doesn’t mean they favor an ignorant group of lawmakers cramming laws down the throats of their constituency while trampling the US Constitution.any democrats enjoy their guns and high capacity magazines…especially in areas like Colorado.

  • Joseph Jr

    ” Public ” policy polling? If you are private why name yourselves ” Public” ? They just keep getting more and more ludicrous. Like calling a spy a public figure. I very seldom participate in polls because they are usually fixed. Either way they lost in a big way and it isn’t considered important enough to report on. Even though every major news media outlet was watching and there. Sucks when you lose I guess. It would have been front page if the recall failed. The communist media is so bias it doesn’t bother to hide it anymore.

  • Victoria Richardson

    The PPP poll leans very left. It always has the Democrats in the lead in most of its polling. It took a poll saying that Sarah Palin would win in a landslide in the Republican Senate primary but losing in the General election, I bet Gov Palin was in the lead in the General and PPP decided to skew the poll. It does this with other Republicans. I don’t trust the PPP polls at all and this proves it. When liberals are even calling their own polling, that’s when you know the PPP poll can not be trusted.

  • Edward Éamonn Knuff

    Liars.

  • gman213

    6 Tweets in a row defending yourself could be seen as evidence of guilt…just sayin

  • overthecoastline

    PPP are in FULL-ON SPIN mode.

    Another liberal institution about to join the dust, with “Air America” and Keith Olbermann. Good riddance.

  • overthecoastline

    PPP are in FULL-ON SPIN mode.

    Another liberal institution about to join the dust, with “Air America” and Keith Olbermann. Good riddance.