A new poll has been released out of New Mexico that has Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson sitting seven points behind Trump and 11 points behind Clinton, the leader in that state.
#NEW New Mexico, @ABQJournal Poll:
Clinton 35% (+4)
Trump 31%
Johnson 24%
Stein 2%https://t.co/yalDV4OABy— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 2, 2016
Of course, Johnson was governor of that state, so it is natural that he would poll better there. The intrigue is that it creates a plausible (albeit very unlikely) scenario in which the race could end with no candidate reaching the needed 270 electoral votes.
A new poll puts @GovGaryJohnson at 24% in New Mexico, which makes this map plausible. Electoral College deadlock. https://t.co/EpKzUmfzUP pic.twitter.com/kgqpWlLuIK
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 2, 2016
Here’s more from Nate Silver:
“Most of the time, Trump would be the beneficiary of a Clinton loss in New Mexico. But the model also assigns Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee, an outside chance — 2 or 3 percent — of winning the state. That could lead to an Electoral College deadlock.”
At this point, who can count any scenario out?
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