Democrats better buckle up.
This thread about the midterms next week from Athan Koutsiouroumbas is really something else. He’s not talking agenda, narrative, marketing, campaigning … nope, he’s just looking at the basic numbers of what we can expect from turnout and yeah, wow.
It ain’t good for Democrats.
Take a gander:
It appears the GOP may have 350,000 more voters turnout than projected while the DEMS may fall 200,000+ voters short of projections. That’s a net-shift of 550,000 voters in favor of Republicans. Let me explain… (1/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
That’s HUGE.
Sorry … YUGE.
Let’s start with the GOP. Experts projected about 1,000,000 republicans would vote in the ’22 Primary. They reached that number by presuming any republican who voted in 2 of the last 4 primaries would vote in the 2022 Primary. (2/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
1,000,000 voters is an incredibly large number for a Midterm Primary. By comparison, about 825,000 republicans voted in the Red Wave ’10 Primary. (3/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
There are a lot of pissed off Republicans out there who are willing to bring 10 other pissed off Republicans to the polls with them.
With highly competitive primary races for US Senate and Governor this year, experts felt safe projecting 1,000,000 2022 Republican Primary voters. Plus, it’s always better to talk to more voters than less voters. (4/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Nonetheless, 1,354,288 Republicans voted in the 2022 GOP Primary! (5/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
HOLY COW.
That’s 350,000 more republicans than the already insane turnout projection of 1,000,000 Republican Primary voters. Who were these extra 350,000 republicans? (6/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Parents.
That’s just our guess.
It doesn’t take a political scientist to deduce that @DougMastriano brought them to the polls. These are the same voters who turned out for Trump in ’16 and ’20 but stayed home in ’18. They are almost certain to vote in November to finish the job. (7/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
As for the Democrats, operatives and the MSM have touted the Mail-In Ballot application disparity between Democrats and Republicans. While it’s greater than 3:1 in favor of the Democrats, that statistic is irrelevant. (8/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
PA Republicans do not Vote by Mail. Unlike states like Florida which implemented and refined Mail-In Ballots over time to build trust, the hurried implementation in PA during the pandemic yielded lawsuits and other confusion. Republicans simply don’t trust it. (9/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Nobody really trusts it, but we digress.
Keep going.
Believing Mail-In Ballots to be a powerful tool to get infrequently voting Democrats to cast ballots, intense resources were invested by the Left to persuade Democrats to opt-in to the system. The pandemic was lighter fluid for the enrollment efforts. (10/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Note, big props to Athan for numbering his tweets. True story.
How good were the PA Dems at Mail-In ballot enrollment? In 2020, nearly half of Philly Dems Voted By Mail! (11/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
That’s not sus or anything.
Wow.
The irony is that Philly, where most voters are no more than a couple of blocks away from a polling station, used the mail-in ballot convenience at the largest rate. (12/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
That’s nuts.
The Democrats’ hope was that once a Democratic voter was enrolled to Vote By Mail, would they do it repeatedly. Could the Democrats train their voters, especially the infrequent voters, to always opt-in? (13/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Train their voters … heh.
The answer is mixed, but with mostly bad news for the Democrats. Let’s look at Philly… (14/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Bad news for Democrats.
Tell us more.
In Nov 2020, 578,991 Philly Democrats voted…with 281,510 of them using Mail-In Ballots. That’s 48.52% of total Philly Democratic turnout using Mail-In Ballots. (15/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
If the Democrats wildest dreams come true, all of those 281,510 Philly Dems would re-enroll to Vote By Mail in subsequent years. The result would be to “Un-purple” Pennsylvania and make it permanently “Blue,” especially in lower turnout years. (16/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
This November, only 164,576 Philly Dems applied to Vote By Mail. The typical return rate for Democrats to return mail-in ballots is around 85%. So, 15% of those 164,576 applicants likely won’t cast any ballot at all. (17/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Wow.
This sounds a lot like what happened in Virginia.
So, it’s really about 140,000 Philly Democrats who will Vote By Mail in 2022. 140,000 is LESS THAN HALF of the total number of 2020 Philly Dems who used Mail-In Ballots. (18/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
When you take the difference between the number of Philly Dems who should have applied to Vote by Mail (215,000) and how many actually did apply to Vote By Mail (140,000), it yields a deficit of about 75,000 votes. That’s a lotta votes. (20/29) pic.twitter.com/Y4nTt46Fsr
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Short 74k votes.
This warms our cold, evil, conservative hearts.
Were the Democrats wrong in assuming that their voters would adopt Mail-In Ballots as their preferred method? No, in fact they were quite right. (21/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
While the same raw count of Democrats have not applied to Vote By Mail compared to 2020, most counties saw the same percentage of Democrats apply to Vote by Mail against likely turnout of all Democrats in that county. (22/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
In 14 Pennsylvania counties, Democrats actually exceeded their Vote By Mail application rate against projected turnout. It is no coincidence those 14 counties are the most rural in Pennsylvania. (23/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
In 50 PA counties, Dems applied to Vote By Mail within 10% against projected turnout. Meaning in 75% of PA’s Counties, Dems really have adopted Vote by Mail as “How They Vote Now.” They nearly all rural counties, where Vote By Mail is a true convenience. (24/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
But, something very bad happened for Democrats in Philly, Allegheny, MontCo, DelCo, Chester, Dauphin Centre and 10 other of the most populated counties, which is where most Democratic voters live. (25/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
When you take the “Philly Trend” across all of Pennsylvania, the Democrats are short about 200,000 voters. (26/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Short about 200k votes.
Maybe these Democratic voters will show up at the polls on Tuesday? Doubtful, as republicans lead democrats in voter intensity by double digits. (27/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Oh yeah.
So, potentially 200,000 fewer Democrats and 350,000 more Republicans in the 2022 Midterm could make for some Midterm surprises. (28/29)
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
Here’s the raw data. (29/29)https://t.co/B7DZOjI4b0
— Athan Koutsiouroumbas (@Athan_K) November 3, 2022
If these numbers actually do add up (or subtract?) yeah, Democrats are in trouble.
BIGLY.
Crossing fingers.
***
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