Americans have got to be asking themselves what exactly our experts are basing their predictions on when the models we see keep failing. Hey, we get it, predicting the future is tough and when you’re dealing with an unknown like a virus it’s even tougher, but if you’re going to shut down the entire country for weeks or months at a time, you probably want the best data you can get.
And we’re starting to think the University of WA model (which many of our elected officials have been using) is not the best.
Brit Hume even pointed this out:
The closely watched University of Washington model has another bad day. https://t.co/NuJeDXgJrh
— Brit Hume (@brithume) April 5, 2020
And then the media shame Trump for saying there is light at the end of the tunnel. It’s almost as if our friends in the media and on the Left (same difference really) don’t want the country to come out of this … at least not until November when we’re well and truly screwed and then they can waltz in with their ‘mail-in’ votes and magically beat Trump.
I am happy and relieved that the projections were so off the mark, but one has to ask why. Although we were a little late to react, could it be that the precautions that were taken help drive down these numbers. Just a thought.
— Phineas J Whoopee (@j_whoopee) April 5, 2020
Happy, relieved … even a little hopeful.
Things Americans haven’t been feeling in a long, long while.
If guidance and actions are being dictated by this model, there needs to be a major recalibration.
— B?b Cook (@BobCook72) April 6, 2020
Bad for them. Good for us.
— Chris Tsotsoros (@ctsotsoros) April 6, 2020
Model is about as accurate as the global warming model.
— TommyHour?? (@thomashourigan1) April 5, 2020
To be absolutely fair, was the model based on "doing nothing", or was it based on the measures that we have taken? If the latter, then yeah it's soooo wrong. If the former… we we'd never know, would we?
— Russell Flowers (@ChoralReave) April 5, 2020
Also a fair point. Does the model reflect what would’ve happened if we didn’t take action? If so does this prove mitigation does work?
So much we just don’t know.
— Derek Hunter (@derekahunter) April 5, 2020
From Town Hall:
There’s no question the coronavirus is deadly and dangerous, but is it going to kill hundreds of thousands in the US and millions around the world? We have no idea. All we have are guesses. But if you’re going to destroy the economy and severely restrict people’s lives, you’d better have some damn good information backing up your actions. There are questions about the computer models being used to impose just that.
One prominent model in the shutdown is from the University of Washington, from their Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), funded by Bill and Melinda Gates. How closely does what they predicted track with reality so far? Turns out, not so well.
While the reporting data from some states are lagging, others have provided information that calls into question the validity of the whole model, and with it, all the actions taken by government.
See, Derek Hunter said it way better than we could.
It would seem models are chosen more for their political value than their statistical significance.
— Beorn (@Beorn2000) April 5, 2020
Maybe we shouldn’t put so much faith in a COVID model that keeps failing? Just sayin’.