Dr. Ashish K. Jha, Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, estimates that the death toll from COVID-19 in India is not the reported 4000+ per day but somewhere between 25,000-50,000 deaths per day.
THREAD ==>
India reports another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day
A sustained level of horribleness
And its not correct
True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today
Lots of ways to estimate but here's a simple one
Look at the crematoriums
Thread
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 9, 2021
During non-pandemic year 2019
About 27,000 Indians died on typical day
Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day
Additional 4,000 deaths won't knock them off their feet
Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal business
2/4
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 9, 2021
So best estimate 55K to 80K people dying daily in India
If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K
COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily
Not 4,000
What about infections?
Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)
In India, at least 1% right now
3/5
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 9, 2021
You might say — woah, that's high
In US its about 0.6% and India has a younger population
BUT
Indian healthcare system has collapsed,
People dying for lack of oxygen
So IFR of 1% is reasonable, may even too low
Which would put daily infections at 2.5 to 5M / day
4/5
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 9, 2021
So here's the bottom line
India can't be experiencing 4K deaths a day
If it were, it would barely be blip in the background
Instead, seeing crematoriums running 24/7 and running out of firewood
Means the # of deaths from COVID at least closer to 25K, may be much more
5/6
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 9, 2021
There's an old saying in global health
You can ignore, fail to test for, or undercount whatever disease you want
But you can't ignore the dead
In India, the dead are telling us the disease is much worse than the official statistics
And we have to listen
Fin
— Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) May 9, 2021
So, will we ever know what’s really going on? Not likely as this is reminiscent of what went on in China early on in the pandemic:
A small private hospital in India's most populous state is being charged under the National Security Act for sounding the alarm over a lack of oxygen https://t.co/GhYvyjNOe2
— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 9, 2021
And this:
The Lancet severely criticised the Narendra Modi government for its handling of the COVID-19 crisis in India, saying it has given the impression of being more occupied with “removing criticism on Twitter than trying to control the pandemic”.https://t.co/EUMx7YKVTh
— The Wire (@thewire_in) May 8, 2021
The Lancet is also calling on India to “own up” to its mistakes:
PM's Actions "Inexcusable", India Needs To Own Up Covid Mistakes: Lancet https://t.co/evkxatHePP#COVIDSecondWave pic.twitter.com/3dNM0RTNuE
— NDTV (@ndtv) May 8, 2021
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