If you look at the final poll averages over at RealClearPolitics, it’s pretty clear that momentum is on President Trump’s side as we finish up voting today. (These numbers are a little out of date and have moved around a bit):
Getting close…
Real Clear Politics averages:
IA: Trump +1.4
OH: Trump +1.4
TX: Trump +1.2
NC: Trump +0.5
GA: Trump +0.2
AZ: Biden +0.5
FL: Biden +1.7
PA: Biden +2.9
If Trump sweeps those eight states, he’ll win the election.— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) November 2, 2020
But the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who has used this RCP in the past, says that this year they’re skewing the results toward Trump in these final days:
One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020
“RCP’s averages this cycle just haven’t been a fair average of the polling that’s out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump”:
RCP's averages this cycle just haven't been a fair average of the polling that's out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020
And even if the president wins again, Cohn says “that won’t vindicate RCP”:
Trump may win in the end, but that won't vindicate RCP.
If Trump wins the polls were really, really wrong. I'll certainly be nothing but honest about that fact.
But you don't get that impression from RCP, since they're not fairly reflecting the polls.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020
Or, maybe this accurately shows movement in the final days of the election?
Just go down the list of each RCP average this morning, and ask 'are the cutoff dates consistent?' and 'who would benefit if the cutoff date was a day earlier.'
The answers are 'no' and Biden.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020
Cohn says he will no longer use the RCP any longer in his work:
This has been true for a while now, but they really took it up a couple of notches over the weekend. And unfortunately it's enough that I won't be using the site anymore for citing polling averages.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020
We’ll find out shortly who is correct.
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