If you look at the final poll averages over at RealClearPolitics, it’s pretty clear that momentum is on President Trump’s side as we finish up voting today. (These numbers are a little out of date and have moved around a bit):

But the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who has used this RCP in the past, says that this year they’re skewing the results toward Trump in these final days:

“RCP’s averages this cycle just haven’t been a fair average of the polling that’s out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump”:

And even if the president wins again, Cohn says “that won’t vindicate RCP”:

Or, maybe this accurately shows movement in the final days of the election?

Cohn says he will no longer use the RCP any longer in his work:

We’ll find out shortly who is correct.