FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has analyzed the results from the 2018 midterms and is warning Republicans of Electoral College problems for President Donald Trump in the 2020 election:

Silver based this map showing a 314-224 victory for Dems based on popular vote data in each House race, with Dems flipping the “tipping point” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania:

Even shifting votes to a “neutral environment” gives Dems the edge 278-260:

There are two paths for Dems, as Silver sees it:

But Republicans can’t count on the eventual Dem nominee to forget about the Midwest as Hillary did: