FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has analyzed the results from the 2018 midterms and is warning Republicans of Electoral College problems for President Donald Trump in the 2020 election:
Will the Electoral College help Trump again in 2020? Actually, based on the results from the midterms, that's not so clear. https://t.co/iDz0iMHUe5
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
Silver based this map showing a 314-224 victory for Dems based on popular vote data in each House race, with Dems flipping the “tipping point” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania:
Democrats did very well in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which are basically the tipping-point states right now. I posted this map last night, but here's who won each state in the popular vote for the House in each state. Dark blue / dark red = won by at least 5 points. pic.twitter.com/Q7PLB6d4Ob
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
Even shifting votes to a “neutral environment” gives Dems the edge 278-260:
Of course, Tuesday was a very blue night. But if you shift every state toward Republicans by 6 points, which roughly reflects what you'd get in a neutral political environment, here's what the map looks like. This looks like a pretty fair fight for the Electoral College. pic.twitter.com/HKe1z66C22
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
There are two paths for Dems, as Silver sees it:
Basically, a Democrat hoping to win the WH can undertake one of 2 strategies:
1) Northern Path—Flip WI, MI & PA back to blue. Hold MN.
2) Sunbelt Strategy—Lose all the above states, but win FL and any of NC, AZ, TX(!), GA.— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
But Republicans can’t count on the eventual Dem nominee to forget about the Midwest as Hillary did:
The Sunbelt Strategy may be tempting to Dems, especially if Texas is now more competitive. But the Northern Path—Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania—sure looks a lot easier. What you really don't want it to get stuck in between the two, which is sort of what happened to Clinton.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
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