Our friends at the Ace of Spades HQ Decision Desk have been assembling an impressive record of calling races, and they’re sounding pretty certain that Republican challenger Dan Sullivan is on his way to victory in Alaska, despite around 30,000‑40,000 absentee votes that have yet to be counted.
As I explained over weekend, today's vote count explains why it's over, over, over for Senator Mark Begich in AKSEN. Mark it 8, dude.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 12, 2014
Um, would you mind repeating that bit for us? Thanks in advance.
Getting a lot of questions in my feed over last few days re AKSEN: why hasn't AP called? Did @AoSHQDD blow it in calling? Can Begich win?
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
Answer re: AKSEN. No, Mark Begich is not going to win. It's theoretically (mathematically) possible, but statistically close to impossible.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
Here's the logic: in AK full vote takes eternity to count, in part b/c of remote vastness of certain regions, but also b/c, well, laziness.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
Still outstanding are a ton of absentee votes, some votes from remote areas (Inuit tribal regions), provisionals, etc. I've seen 35-40K.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
40K votes?? ZOMG, that's a lot, isn't it? Nah, not really. Here's the skinny on AK vote-count patterns, based on Begich's 2008 win.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
In 2008, Mark Begich ended election night down by roughly 2,000 votes on his way to a 4,000 vote win vs. Ted Stevens.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
Now recall: that was a Prez election year (higher turnout), a VERY strong Democratic year (Obama wave), and Stevens had been INDICTED.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
And still, in most perfect storm ever seen for an Alaska Dem in modern history, the after-elex vote count only added 6K votes to margin.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
Right now, Begich trails Sullivan by 8,200 votes, or about 4%. In an off-year electorate, in the midst of a massive R wave year.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
In order for him to make up 8,200 vote gap, you have to posit him winning outstanding votes by a %ge that would've been bonkers for *'08*.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
As I said, it's mathematically possible, strictly speaking, but still vanishingly unlikely. Near-zero. Margin will narrow, but not close.
— Jeff B, fightin' the COVID one bootleg at a time (@EsotericCD) November 9, 2014
Makes sense. Now let’s have a look at the numbers as they’ve come in through the day.
Lead for Dan Sullivan (R) over Sen Mark Begich D-AK in Alaska Senate race grows from 8,149 to 8,784 today #aksen
— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) November 12, 2014
First batch of #AKSEN #AKGOV absentees counted, Parnell gained about 150 on Walker, Sullivan gained 600 over Begich. http://t.co/sy1bwCemLM
— David Freddoso (@freddoso) November 12, 2014
Walker (I) +3,019 over Parnell (R)
Sullivan (R) +8,784 over Begich (D).
Approximately 30k balllots left, per @adndotcom— David Freddoso (@freddoso) November 12, 2014
Alaska update: Sullivan's (R) lead over Sen. Begich (D) has grown to 8,784. GOP Gov. Parnell's made gains but still trails Walker (I).
— Ken Rudin (@kenrudin) November 12, 2014
With another 15,000 ballots processed in Alaska:
Begich (D-inc) 109,235
Sullivan (R) 117,306
Sullivan gained another 7103, Begich 7181.— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 12, 2014
#AKSen update (Sullivan +8071):
Begich, Mark DEM 109235 45.30%
Sullivan, Dan REP 117306 48.65%— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) November 12, 2014
New Alaska update (added 4701 votes): #AKSen Begich gains 713 votes, now trails by 8071.#AKGov Walker gains 820 votes, now leads by 3839.
— Taniel (@Taniel) November 12, 2014
#Alaska: What's happened overall today (for now):
*15257 ballots counted
*#AKSen: Begich netted 78 votes
*#AKGov: Walker netted 674 votes— Taniel (@Taniel) November 12, 2014
At this pace, Begich can catch Sullivan after they count about 1.5 million more ballots https://t.co/mwrFi60BF1
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) November 12, 2014
@AoSHQDD @freddoso @Amanda_Coyne @AaronWorthing @allahpundit Buh–bye, Begich. Please concede now and retain some measure of grace.
— David Edgren (@DavidEdgren) November 12, 2014
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