We love a good thread.
But we especially ADORE a good thread when it comes from someone who has had an epiphany of sorts and shares the receipts that helped them change their minds.
Like this one.
Yup, it’s long but definitely worth your time.
i have been resistant to accepting the "the WHO is now a bought and paid for propaganda arm" hypothesis, but this latest statement is such utter and complete bollocks that i'm struggling to find another explanation.
this is disastrously, insanely wrong.https://t.co/W0cojeWU8c
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
The things people think can’t possibly be true or real seem to be all too true and all too real in 2020.
Crazy stuff.
everything in their statement is false.
let's start with "herd immunity". most scientists do NOT believe that you need 60-80% exposure to reach COV herd immunity.
you would need to have no idea what herd immunity means or how it works to possibly believe something that stupid.
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
this is simply bad extrapolation from the base equation:
HIT = 1 -(1/R0) where R0 is the basic reproduction number for a disease.
so if R0 = 2.5, then you need 60% for herd immunity. 80% would imply R0 = 5 and no one believes that that.
so right there, this range is absurd.
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Sorry, we were told there would be no math.
but that's nothing like the real issue. the real issue is that HIT does not mean what people think it does & that this equation is idealized. it's based on 2 massive assumptions neither of which are true in the real world
so nothing about the output of the equation is relevant
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Recommended
first off, "herd immunity threshold" used in this sense is not the point where a disease stops spreading well and recedes.
it's the point where a disease literally goes extinct and there will never be another case.
it's for wiping out measles, not ending flu season or SARS1. pic.twitter.com/ZcgdtH3bp4
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
to use "complete eradication of the virus" as a benchmark is ridiculous. you do not need that for a pandemic or epidemic to end. you just need to reach the disease break point where it no longer spreads.
and that is a fraction of HIT, which, itself, is a massively overstated #
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
HIT is overstated because it assumes 2 things:
1. that a disease is novel & that there is no pre-existing immunity in the affected population
2. that the social graph is homogeneous. all people are connected to other people in identical ways
neither is remotely true for COV
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
What they said.
pre-existing resistance is widespread and effective.
40-80% of individuals (and pretty much all children) have existing t-cell mediated resistance.
this completely cuts the legs out from under the herd immunity idea.https://t.co/bGjFHFZw76
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
this is like starting with 1/2-3/4 of the population immunized and we've seen the effects.
look at the pac rim and china adjacent countries.
all have low v deaths.
this is the same area with the most previous exposure to SARS and sars-like vuruses.https://t.co/D5szHfDKlp
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Wow.
so right there, this idea that 60% is the needed level of infections to hit HIT is put to bed.
but it gets worse. the social graph in the real world is nothing like homogeneous
some people connect to many others or vulnerable others. some are isolated. this further drops HIT
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
superpsreaders get sick early but then become super-resistors. so you get a quick flash up that attenuates as the effective transmission vector is used then rendered ineffective.
this has been known for DECADES.
and it has been widely discussed here.https://t.co/JkllnQ69Fu
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
these people were talking about 17-20% effective HIT (to stop disease spread) in stockholm back in early may.
and they were RIGHT.
and that is important. the way one tests a model is to make a forward prediction then see if the data aligns with it.
it did and has all over. pic.twitter.com/HLYS7UZQry
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
what has happened in sweden IS herd immunity
contrary to the endless bloviations of the chattering classes and crisis karens, it was done at VERY low cost
sweden is a massive success story
it's the folks like NY that over-reacted that are disastershttps://t.co/MhaaptmwQI
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Sweden.
all cause deaths in sweden are low for this flu season, not high.
covid was not some "rampant plague" there. it acted like a late season flu, that did not even get deaths to baseline levels.https://t.co/ZjlgX3sDLV
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
this desperately tired "but hospitals will be overwhelmed" claim turned out to be the worst sort of claptrap, just as it did in the US and the RoW.
imperial and IHME over-guessed hospital need by 100X.
none of "flatten the curve" was ever true.https://t.co/Mw0SxiPPf8
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Worst of the claptrap.
Yup.
Well, telling us they only needed two weeks to ‘flatten the curve’ was the true WORST of the claptrap but this works too.
it was bad exponential math fueling half smart models w/ no predictive ability. the effects were disastrous.
meanwhile, NONE of the non-pharma interventions (NPI) have done anything
not lockdown, not masks, not travel bans.
everyone got the same curvehttps://t.co/5iPbLaTinN
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
The models really were (are?) garbage.
and states in the US with more lockdown had MORE deaths, not fewer.
(and no, this was not mostly inverse causality where outbreak severity drove lockdown. i checked that. read the thread)https://t.co/bm5xejyBBr
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
States with more lockdowns had more deaths.
Huh.
and absolutely none of this was supposed to work.
it was recommended AGAINST including by the WHO.
they have (and continue to) go against every piece of longstanding guidance including their own.https://t.co/sFdUYqxO80
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
this is longstanding pandemic canon:
the consequence of large scale quarantine are so extreme…that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.
this is from 2006. nothing has changed. pic.twitter.com/MKxmUwlbIr
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
even uber-karen redfield is waking up to how out of control this is.
guys, HIT will vary place to place, but it's going to be low and reachable.
it is the ONLY real option and always was.
and everyone knew this for a century.
then we choked.https://t.co/EpbOFdCl5N
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Uber-Karen.
HA HA HA HA HA
Perfect.
and this leads to the biggest lie in the WHO statement which i have saved for last. it's the tricky one to spot.
on top of the lie that HIT is 60-80% and that NPI's work is the worst lie of all:
that COV is so dangerous that we need to huddle in place or see mountains of dead.
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
they just slip this in as totally baseless assumption.
yet it did not happen in sweden.
and it did not happen in the uncontrolled US northeast.
they hit herd immunity. look at massachusetts. this is a simple, uniform disease curve like any other disease burn out. pic.twitter.com/jNeQGc7pqX
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
deaths in the northeast were not high because covid is so deadly. they were high because policy was so tragically bad.
forcing cov+ patients into nursing homes was a disaster everywhere it was tried. italy, spain, quebec, etc
take this out and it looks like flu. pic.twitter.com/gwZKW6mUST
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
and the CFR/IFR numbers being tossed around are non-comparable garbage.
whoever set the "death by cov" definition as "death with cov even if not as primary cause" has A LOT to answer for.
no other disease/pathology is counted this way.
it's probably doubling cov numbers.
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
so the WHO is simply lying on every level here and they MUST know better.
this is not medical advice.
it's deliberate propaganda.
this is WAY past anything that could be an accident.
and absolutely no one should be listening to them.
this is flat out mendacity. pic.twitter.com/0Zo6qGQQSx
— el gato malo (@boriquagato) July 30, 2020
Something like that.
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