The other day, we told you about a Washington Post poll that showed 8 in 10 D.C. residents opposed President Trump's plan to reduce crime in the city.
The Left took this as 'proof' that the plan was unwelcome. King of Threads Drew Holden did some digging into the cross-tabs of the poll, however, and it tells a very interesting story.
Let's dive in.
🧵Thread🧵
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
A single poll has bootstrapped a media narrative that DC residents are outraged by Trump’s takeover.
I poked around the cross tabs of the poll — of 600 or so of DC’s more comfortable residents — and I think it’s pretty suspect.
How come? Follow along: ⤵️
Here we go.
Let’s start with the poll. The @washingtonpost talked to 604 people, of whom 90% — 90%! — self-described as living in “very good” or “good” neighborhoods.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
So, fine. 80% of people who like where they live in DC are upset. pic.twitter.com/90BI2X1FdE
Ah. So this was mostly coddled, affluent residents. Peachy.
But even beyond that, it’s worth asking whether this poll really captures DC’s opinion.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
In the poll, only 31% describe crime as a “serious” or “very serious” problem in DC.
When @washingtonpost asked this same question in May, *50%* said it was a serious problem.
What gives? pic.twitter.com/SJRB4BpUta
Yeah, what gives?
It would charitably be described as dubious to think residents really thought crime was less of an issue after a summer of bedlam and increasingly stringent youth curfews in DC.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
(An aside, but if kids can’t legally go outside at night, I think the safety “debate” is settled.) pic.twitter.com/lcCvUh3soz
The safety debate is settled if kids can't go outside at night.
That the numbers are representative of the city are even more questionable b/c certain neighborhoods in DC, as @CharlesFLehman wrote recently in The Atlantic, are devastated by violent crime.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
For black men in some neighborhoods, mortality is on-par with US servicemen in war. pic.twitter.com/s4iMwEVKaN
That's insane.
That fact makes it curious that the Post oversampled white DC residents, essentially inverting the black and white populations in DC in the poll: a plurality of poll respondents were white, despite black residents making up a plurality of DC. pic.twitter.com/5LTvtlSK2h
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
So they lied.
That matters for the data because, as @FreeBeacon has reported, black and low-income DC residents are a lot more concerned about crime. pic.twitter.com/2YlGLxbk9J
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
Hey, Leftists? This is what actual White privilege looks like.
Another curious tidbit: when you isolate for respondents who have been or even know a victim of crime, support for Trump’s move doubles.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
Does the vast majority of DC not know a crime victim?
Maybe the outlier is with the 600 people interested in replying to a poll in the Post? pic.twitter.com/EEHDfvolOF
This poll is the outlier.
Whether this type of poll accurately does what it purports to do matters because this is precisely the type of narrative that catches fire at other outlets.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
This tiny sample was treated as definitive across the media. Here’s @CNN. pic.twitter.com/hi0DK36E1f
Of course the media ran with this as gospel.
Is this poll of 600 people really cause for @thehill to declare that DC residents “overwhelmingly” oppose this move?
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
It’s kind of like taking a single study and elevating it to a definitive truth: bad statistics. pic.twitter.com/WZv3W5gVfy
We don't despise the media.
The local @NBCNews affiliate did the same.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
Again, these 600 maybe not-so-random residents are doing a lot of lifting. pic.twitter.com/zg2hHOIXQT
They sure are.
My favorite was @politico, who touted the “supermajority” of DC residents. pic.twitter.com/BvNeUQDkty
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
That's a spin.
I know this fits your narrative, @JoeNBC, but I’m not sure it captures what’s actually happening on the ground. @MSNBC pic.twitter.com/arBgU04cEE
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
It does not.
And of course, reporters took to X to broadcast this as proof that the policy was a loser and, even less convincingly, that DC is no longer concerned about crime. @peterbakernyt, if you’re truly interested in what DC residents think about crime, the May polling is instructive. pic.twitter.com/LZpiWgiOjY
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
The May polling is far more instructive.
And the internet’s genius talking heads regurgitated it without chewing, as ever. A BUST, @mmpadellan declared. pic.twitter.com/jUYW4eR64i
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
Not a bust, but that's Brooklyn Dad for you.
The bigger problem is that polls like this give cover for the media to stop reporting on the real newsworthy item: DC has a serious crime problem. @ScottJenningsKY nails the diagnosis here, about where the city is at and why it matters regardless of local polling: https://t.co/95mcO2k8nW
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
We like Scott Jennings.
The @washingtonpost’s previous reporting — no matter how charitably framed — makes clear that crime has gotten out of hand here.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
900 juvenile arrests — at least 200 for violent crimes — so far this year.
It isn’t even September! pic.twitter.com/fsS4GV0Q1Y
There's a lot of 2025 left.
While opponents proclaim that “crime is at a 30 year low” and that violent crime has gone down relative to the “generational spike in killings” in 2023, murders remain considerably higher in DC than 15 years ago.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
(I’ll also just note that 30 years ago was the crack epidemic.) pic.twitter.com/nkFjqBkyCc
The victims of murders remain disproportionately young Black men.
It helps explain why residents have long seen crime as an enormous problem: even if the numbers are declining (or, are made to be declining). pic.twitter.com/mb9dEZyh7e
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
That and the police fudging the data.
The earlier piece also provides a once-in-a-lifetime quote, where a DC resident declares that the capital is “a safe city” but said so “on the condition of anonymity over concerns of personal safety.” pic.twitter.com/XKAmp0Bc5c
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
Oh, the irony.
Also, as @ScottJenningsKY mentions, the claim that DC crime is “at a 30 year low,” is based on a government assertion that may very well be built on cooked books that deflate violent crime — so that DC leadership could *claim* crime was down. pic.twitter.com/ITdIsd9e9H
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
Once again, Jennings brings the receipts.
(Some great actual reporting on DC’s potentially fabricated crime numbers, particularly on violent crime, here from @alanagoodman:) https://t.co/UXsWZLbSbL
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
That is excellent reporting.
Could it be that a certain segment of DC understands something everyone else is missing? I suppose.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 26, 2025
But it sure seems more likely to me that a bad poll is getting lots of attention to push a media narrative about how bad Trump is instead of how bad DC crime is.
This next thing will blow your mind:
And after all that, Mayor Bowser today says the effort is already helping to bring down crime.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 27, 2025
It makes one thing clear: crime really was — and to be clear, IS — a problem in DC, and one that absolutely can be mitigated. https://t.co/HM3k0lf8rQ
We told you about that more in-depth here.
At the end of the day, I think this @washingtonpost poll on DC crime and Trump’s response isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
— Drew Holden (@DrewHolden360) August 27, 2025
Crime is absolutely an 80-20 issue, and Dems are on the wrong side of it (h/t @ScottJenningsKY once again) https://t.co/sTgb7s2LE6
There you have it, folks. That poll? Debunked.