Ouch! Polling group that called Va. race right on the nose puts Biden's approval at minus 19

Doug P. | 11:20 AM on November 04, 2021

When it comes to the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the Trafalgar Group is the polling group that got the closest:

2021 VA Gov race Final Result
(R) Youngkin 50.7% (+2.3)
(D) McAuliffe 48.5%

VA Gov Most Accurate Pollsters
1. Trafalgar (R), Nov 1 Poll
Youngkin +2.3% . No error
2. Insider Advantage (R) Nov 1
Youngkin +2 (D+0.3 error)
3. @Peoples_Pundit Nov 1
Youngkin +3 (R+0.7 error) pic.twitter.com/oU1LOgSvS6

— InteractivePolls (@PollsandOdds) November 3, 2021

We were the only #Poll to show @PhilMurphyNJ in a close race with late deciders breaking against him.

As of this AM the race is still neck and neck – #Election2021 @trafalgar_group #1 #NJGov #Poll #NJpol https://t.co/oglxa9uvQj pic.twitter.com/Szcla59JFb

— The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) November 3, 2021

It’s been noticed that the same polling group also had bad news for the Biden White House:

The pollster who nailed the VA race down to the tenth of a percent also has Biden's approval at -19. https://t.co/CFpnppfvmp

— The Partyman (@PartymanRandy) November 4, 2021

Real Clear Politics has the Trafalgar number listed here.

I think the VA exit polls had Biden's approval at -13 in Virginia, which also makes -19 pretty realistic nationwide.

— The Partyman (@PartymanRandy) November 4, 2021

With numbers like that it’s kind of amazing that the McAuliffe campaign even wanted Biden and Harris to campaign for him in Virginia.