'May you live in interesting times' is a curse, and we're starting to understand why. November is a very, very long way away -- especially in terms of politics. A lot can happen between then and now (and even after).
ABC News contributor Sarah Isgur has a thread on just how interesting things could get if Biden is the Democratic Party nominee:
The next constitution crisis. AKA another problem w Joe Biden as the Dem nominee....a 🧵
— Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons) July 9, 2024
The 12th Amendment says that the presidency goes to the person who wins the majority of electoral college votes *out of the whole number available.*
Keep reading.
In 2020, the Supreme Court upheld state laws that bind electoral college members to vote for the candidate that wins the popular vote in the state. Over half of states have such a law and half of those have penalties for non compliance.
— Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons) July 9, 2024
So far, so good.
If Joe Biden were to win the November election but become incapacitated in December, the electors in those states would still be legally obligated to vote for him. Other electors, though, would be free to vote for Harris (or someone else).
— Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons) July 9, 2024
Here's where it gets messy.
If nobody gets a majority of the electoral college votes, the House decides among the top 3 vote getters. Trump would be the top vote getter at that point and the House is very likely to remain under GOP control. (Note: it's by state delegation so the math is a little weirder.)
— Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons) July 9, 2024
Recommended
Hooo boy.
Imagine the meltdowns on X if this happens.
The Dems would have to argue for that these faithless elector laws aren't actually binding in this situation despite the plain text which make no exception for death or disability.
— Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons) July 9, 2024
Yikes.
If Biden were to win and become incapacitated, it would be chaos regardless. But have Dems realized it could result in Trump as being inaugurated as President with Harris as his Vice President?
— Sarah Isgur (@whignewtons) July 9, 2024
Hahahahahahaha.
What a timeline we live in.
People are not happy at this prospect.
Just for fun…if Biden were to become incapacitated, could his family and minions at the White House keep it quiet for a month until the Electoral College votes were cast? They seem to be able to keep a tight lid on things.
— Amanda Stewart Sprowls (@SprowlsAmanda) July 9, 2024
That seems not legal.
Unfollowing for this ridiculous thread of bull. Why does the media want to play these pretend scenarios and try to hand the WH to Trump.
— Eric Suarez, Esq. (@LawyerEricS) July 9, 2024
The argument the media want Trump is hysterical.
Wheeeee!!!! https://t.co/hyRovXjJQs
— Jonathan H. Adler (@jadler1969) July 9, 2024
Wheeee, indeed.
After years of watching people propose elaborate administrative gymnastics to keep Trump from securing the GOP nomination & the presidency (and then to retain the presidency), I can say with confidence that only the thing we expect to happen will happen
— PoIiMath (@politicalmath) July 9, 2024
https://t.co/yQI3gFAA3W
Given Biden's health, nothing should be off the table.
If Biden is going to stick, Democrats need to start planning for all sorts of wacky scenarios, of which this is one.
— Megan McArdle (@asymmetricinfo) July 9, 2024
They also need a plan for impeaching him if he wins and becomes too impaired to govern, but not too impaired to contest an invocation of Section 4 of 25th A https://t.co/lsJ5tfCDy7
They should, but will they?