Jewish Americans have overwhelmingly voted Democratic in most parts of the United States for years. After Biden's latest snub of Israel, conservative American Jews believe they are seeing a shift in sentiment.
So obviously there have been a lot of anecdotes, but I wanted to put real numbers forward despite the small sample. I talked to 25 Jewish voters today in Michigan.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) May 9, 2024
Here is how they voted in 2020:
17- Biden
2- Trump
6- Independent, did not vote, or Blank
Now I asked what they…
Yes, it is just an anecdote and while it's difficult to draw larger conclusions from just one subset of friends, it is instructive.
This is slightly more objective than my experience, but I'm seeing similar results.
— Pradheep J. Shanker, M.D. (@neoavatara) May 9, 2024
Again, Democrats are deluding themselves. This the biggest blunder of Biden's presidency. https://t.co/lJHSzqV8yr
These are people who live in rust belt states. These states are must wins for either candidate to get to 270.
I'm really skeptical that we'll see broad change in voting patterns among the Jewish electorate this year - I think the realignment there is coming but it will take years to play out.
— LoLNothingMatters (@DastDn) May 9, 2024
OTOH, I think it's quite plausible that a consequential number of them will stay home in Nov. https://t.co/bNeGPvdIJ1
Joe Biden honestly cannot afford for them to stay home.
Anecdotally I see a similar trend in my community
— Son of Dr. Spengler (unintentional self-parody) (@spengjr) May 9, 2024
But I wonder: will Jewish voters also punish down-ballot Dems for the party’s capitulation to the Squad? Or will the drop in support be limited to a top-of-ticket phenomenon?
My sense is that they’ll only punish Biden https://t.co/9Topc9n7JX
There are Democrats like John Fetterman who have come out and condemned Biden's treatment of Israel. The American Jewish population may excuse Democrats like him because he took a principled stand.
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Many other people are reporting similar trends. I suspect this is especially true for moderate Democratic Jewish voters. (For reference, most Jewish Democrats consider themselves centrist rather than liberal/left.) There are tons like this in places like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
— Shelley G (@ShelleyGldschmt) May 9, 2024
You can talk to almost any Jewish person and hear the same discussions so it's telling when someone responds pretending it isn't happening.
— AG (@AGHamilton29) May 9, 2024
If the rubber hits the road, I think it will be in PA. Close to a 50/50 state with a sufficient # of Jews to swing things one way or the other. I suspect something similar to 1980 when it was 45/39/15. ~ 1/4 who voted Biden in ‘20 will vote Trump, and ~1/4 will write in/sit out.
— L. G. Brandon 🍌 (@ArtfulCodger007) May 9, 2024
This is a reality Fetterman recognizes about his own state and why he was quick with a tweet last night.
As the leader of the free world, America cannot claim that its commitment to Israel is “iron-clad” and then proceed to withhold aid from Israel.
— Ritchie Torres (@RitchieTorres) May 8, 2024
The mixed messaging makes a mockery of our credibility as an ally. No one will take our word seriously.
Fetterman is not the only angry Democrat.
Jon Tester, vulnerable Dem, breaks with Biden over his threat to withhold some Israel aid if Rafah invasion moves ahead. “I think he should release it,” Tester told me.
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) May 9, 2024
Even more angry Democrats. These are politicians who know the feelings in their local communities. It matters.
There is a very targeted campaign to convince, if not bully, liberal Jews not to vote for Biden in the coming elections. Because the administration has placed a hold on some arms shipments if Israel goes into Rafah in a major operation. This has been generally seen as a betrayal…
— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) May 9, 2024
This extremely long post by a Jewish Biden supporter who also hosts a podcast suggests he is very concerned about Democratic Jewish voters choosing not to vote for Biden.
I look forward to unpacking this load of horsesh^t later tonight. Otherwise, Shaiel has some decent analysis and sourcing. You should still follow him. But man is this contorted logic desperately trying to give the Democratic Party an unwarranted heksher after their betrayal. https://t.co/geDGzppADW
— Pounce de León (@ScipioPersicus) May 9, 2024
It seems many aren't buying the protests from the Democrats any longer. November is months away and many things could change. Right now, this seems like a terrible sign for Joe Biden.
