Brown University economics professor Emily Oster is under fire for daring to look at the data on Covid-19 and coming to the conclusion that it’s safe to go on vacation this summer with unvaccinated kids:
"Although scientists don’t quite understand why, kids seem to be naturally protected. As a result, you can think of your son or daughter as an already vaccinated grandparent," @ProfEmilyOster writes: https://t.co/JLb9V1t5XX
— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) March 18, 2021
“Kids are low risk. Go ahead and plan the summer,” she wrote:
Kids are low risk. Go ahead and plan the summer.
My latest in Atlantic. https://t.co/DfBUcuM6u3
— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 18, 2021
Well, duh:
“Being a child aged 5 to 17 is 99.9 percent protective against the risk of death and 98 percent protective against hospitalization. For children 0 to 4, these numbers are 99.9 percent (death) and 96 percent (hospitalization).” https://t.co/jkzjfRPoGw
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) March 19, 2021
Her point is that “the central goal of vaccination is preventing serious illness and death” and “from this standpoint, being a child is a really great vaccine”:
“The central goal of vaccination is preventing serious illness and death. From this standpoint, being a child is a really great vaccine.”— excellent point by @ProfEmilyOster https://t.co/K5upJs8ELJ
— Amesh Adalja (@AmeshAA) March 18, 2021
But she’s faced a ton of criticism over it. For example:
sadly the Atlantic has published a lot of what amounts to covid denial
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) March 19, 2021
And this thread from Dr. Jennifer Gunter:
Some consequences of kids traveling just hit my in box. So given this awful article in the @TheAtlantic I am going to let you know that several students from my kids' school violated guidelines and traveled out of state to participate in sports competition. 1/ pic.twitter.com/GsHLJE5xjY
— Jennifer Gunter (@DrJenGunter) March 19, 2021
This violated the California Department of Public Health youth sports guidelines. Oh hey, guess what? One of the kids returned to school and was covid positive. A lot of students had to quarantine because of it. 2/ pic.twitter.com/XHXvYsyJyq
— Jennifer Gunter (@DrJenGunter) March 19, 2021
One of my kids tells me he frequently sees others kids and their parents violating the rules on social media. Because of this he is refusing to return to school. That @TheAtlantic article is just going to give many people the "permission" they needed for Spring Break travel. 3/n
— Jennifer Gunter (@DrJenGunter) March 19, 2021
I am livid. How narcissistic and cruel to think that you are above the safety regulations and then to put others at risk. 5/n
— Jennifer Gunter (@DrJenGunter) March 19, 2021
The casual disregard for the lives of others is stunning. 6/n
— Jennifer Gunter (@DrJenGunter) March 19, 2021
But Oster is not backing down.
First of all, she’s not alone in this conclusion as health experts agree with her:
Lots of objections to my saying that this summer you could travel with kids once adults vaccinated (not now. In summer)
Here, some epidemiologists say same thing and also say 200 person outdoor wedding cool in July.
via @NYTOpinion https://t.co/E3eNnStuBl
— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021
And it’s not like she’s some sort of Covid-denier. Here she was last summer saying Texas, Florida and Arizona should have been totally shut down:
Thursday on https://t.co/COEsnkaeeO @ProfEmilyOster of @BrownUniversity and I discuss what the data suggests re: reopening schools this Fall. Learned a lot! pic.twitter.com/8qzuAaUkZs
— Andrew Yang???? (@AndrewYang) July 30, 2020
More here:
Obviously that Atlantic article was upsetting to many people, many of whom I respect and admire.
I wanted to respond.
My goal in the article was to help parents understand what many people say when they say children are "low risk" (1/n)
— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021
And to help people think through what the situation will be for parents and kids in the summer, when the Biden Administration suggests adults will all have vaccine access.
I had hoped the framing of thinking about child versus adult risks and vaccinations would help (2/n)
— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021
In the article, I talk about the risks of hospitalization and death for children, and then say explicitly "Yes, kids are protected from serious illness, just like their vaccinated grandparents, but they are not as protected from contracting the virus at all."
(3/n)— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021
I go on to talk about the role of high adult vaccination rates in the summer in driving lower case rates and making things safer for children.
Most of this nuance was lost in the headline.
(4/n)
— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021
I know I have a platform and the responsibility to use it carefully. I stand behind the analysis in this article, but I regret the way it has come across.
(n/n)
— ProfEmilyOster (@ProfEmilyOster) March 19, 2021
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