A new poll released today by Time magazine shows President Obama with a 5-point lead in the critical battleground state of Ohio, which has sided with the winner in 27 of the last 29 presidential elections.
To answer your first question: the Time poll of 783 likely voters relies on a D+9 sample. Thirty-seven percent of respondents identified as Democrats, while 28 percent were Republicans and 29 percent Independents.
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Time Ohio poll has Obama up 5, 49-44. Sample is D+9 (was D+5 in 08, D+1 in 2010). Romney leads indys by 15%. Many more undecideds are Reps.
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 24, 2012
Do my eyes deceive me? Time CNN poll in Ohio has it 36D/27R? 9 points? 4 points more than '08? That's just embarrassing.
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) October 24, 2012
Ohio was D+5 in 2008 and Time just released a D+9 with Obama under 50!!!!! 49-44.
— Burn, Democrat-Run Cities, Burn! (@NolteNC) October 24, 2012
Oversampling Democrats? Time would like you to know that everybody’s doing it.
RT @michaelscherer: TIME Ohio poll +9 D ID advantage is in line with recent Fox News Ohio poll (+8 D) and CBS/Quin Ohio Poll (+9 D)
— TIMEPolitics (@TIMEPolitics) October 24, 2012
Time’s poll takes into account early voters, two-thirds of whom say they have already voted for Obama. Among those who have yet to vote, the race is considered a dead heat; therefore, turnout on Election Day is an important factor.
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The Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein notes that Obama does seems to have the edge in the state according to most polls, but Time’s D+9 sample is a bit much to swallow.
RCP avg has 12 OH polls in last 2 weeks. Obama up in 9 & 3 are tied. Obama may not be up 5 pts, but seems pretty clear he has edge in state
— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) October 24, 2012
@philipaklein He has edge, but no reason to believe bad polls just because of it. PPP has him up 1. RCP av is 2.1. Sounds right.
— Sunny McSunnyface (@sunnyright) October 24, 2012
@philipaklein Have u considered the polling accuracy? Polling is D+9. Rasmussen has most accurate polling 04 & 08 & they have OH tied today
— Meir Spear (@ms1818) October 24, 2012
Perfectly willing to believe Obama has small edge in Ohio, and think Romney should operate from that assumption. But this is nonsense.
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) October 24, 2012
If you don’t care for Time’s sample, Public Policy Polling is happy to offer its services for a price.
Lots of folks calling for OH tracking poll- if some org wants to sponsor for 20k we'll do 400 a night tmrw through Sunday before election
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 24, 2012
HuffPo’s political editor has a counteroffer.
i'd pay you not to do it RT @ppppolls: Lots of folks calling for OH tracking poll
— Sam Stein (@samstein) October 24, 2012