According to new polling commissioned by Axios, President Trump’s approval rating is not translating into gains for Senate Democrats:
Exclusive polls: Big warning signs for Senate Democrats https://t.co/xE1wPwoPfy
— Axios (@axios) March 8, 2018
In other words, “No D wave in sight”:
WOAH!!!!! ? so much for that blue wave!!! And check out the @realDonaldTrump approval ratings! https://t.co/HH7wJd9wMw
— Chris Barron (@ChrisRBarron) March 8, 2018
No D wave in sight in these Axios-SurveyMonkey Senate polls. https://t.co/h0g6vkeT5X
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 8, 2018
So much for that narrative:
This is a good reminder of the uphill battle that Democrats have this year even with a seemingly great environment for them in the House. https://t.co/6CuKRTrdfB
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) March 8, 2018
And with the right candidates, the GOP will pick up seats:
Obviously we are a long way off but if Republicans can pick good candidates in the primaries, they could really expand their slim lead in the U.S.Senate! https://t.co/JZ7xi4iTCK
— Ford O'Connell (@FordOConnell) March 8, 2018
But it’s not all good news for the GOP as political consultant Liz Mair points out:
1) Many of these races poll against a generic R. NO ONE RUNS AGAINST A GENERIC CANDIDATE OF EITHER PARTY. https://t.co/UMvWjQa7M5
— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018
2) In Heitkamp's case, why didn't @axios poll with Cramer's name attached? We know he's running, right? Data isn't very meaningful if you poll a generic R against her when we have an actual R name. https://t.co/UMvWjQa7M5
— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018
I think the basic point, that a bunch of Senate Ds are vulnerable, is correct. But that was the assumption pre-poll, and the new poll doesn't change that or provide any new clarity. So I'm not sure it's as big a deal, overall, as people are making out.
— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018
Also would note it's interesting that in MO, despite these kinds of numbers, some people are STILL trying to recruit Ann Wagner into a run vs McCaskill, which tells you something about how meaningful MO consultants think these kind of numbers are.
— Liz Mair (@LizMair) March 8, 2018
And this from Instapundit is probably the safest bet right now:
https://twitter.com/instapundit/status/971774814401847299
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Related:
'Blue' Texas? HAHAHA! Here's what really happened with turnout in yesterday's primaries https://t.co/T6ryGi8nNI
— Twitchy Team (@TwitchyTeam) March 7, 2018