On Tuesday evening, pollster Frank Luntz predicted with much certainty that Hillary Clinton would be “the next President of the United States.”
In case I wasn't clear enough from my previous tweets:
Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 8, 2016
After Trump was declared the winner, Luntz blamed bad exit poll data among the things that threw off his prediction. You could see the prediction disaster unfolding as the evening went on:
Everyone following my Twitter: calm down.
There's still lots of vote to be counted. (Over 55% electoral votes remaining.) #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Looking at exit polling margins and results so far.
Even races where correct candidate was picked, the margins were way off. #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
The 2016 exit polls from 5 hours ago are, so far, the worst and least accurate we've ever seen.#ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
https://t.co/oFiV3Ykor4 now has Trump at an 80% chance to win. pic.twitter.com/5UTUK4Tvmi
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Cold this be the DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN of exit polls? #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
There is now a realistic path to 270 for Donald Trump. #ElectionNight https://t.co/L8n90WVkol
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
It's happening. #ElectionNight https://t.co/MLFm7i8dyI
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
I'm at Stephen Colbert right now.
The crowd is in shock. The gasps are audible as results come in. #ElectionNight pic.twitter.com/43QUjUYNDI
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
All of tonight's exit polls were wrong, and I was wrong for citing them. #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Regarding exit polls tonight, Trump voters were either lying or refused to talk to exit pollsters. #ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
What I just told @CharlieRose: All exit polls should be banned.#ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Surprising no one, I now think Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States.#ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
It is now "AP official." #ElectionNight https://t.co/FbjGjDHGce
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Who would have thought?
I sure didn't. #ElectionNight https://t.co/NT24hWiBEN— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
Right now, President-Elect Trump could not be giving a better speech and his audience could not be receiving it any better.#ElectionNight
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) November 9, 2016
There are lessons to be taken from this election, but whether they will be heeded remains to be seen.